One of the trickiest tasks of the planned new Electoral Commission will be to overhaul the Republic’s Dáil constituencies ahead of the next general election to take account of the rise in population recorded in the census.
With more than 5.1 million people living in the State there will have to be at least 171 TDs in the next Dáil to comply with a constitutional requirement to have at least one deputy for every 30,000 people.
Political parties already combing over the preliminary census results in a bid to gain insight into possible changes for the next election.
Redrawing constituency boundaries always has the potential to be highly controversial.
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A redraw can make or break the election hopes of candidates who can suddenly find they’ll gain a chunk of votes from a supportive community — or just as easily lose them.
Ahead of the last general election, Fine Gael’s Noel Rock said he lost 20 per cent of his voters “at the stroke of a pen” after a boundary redraw. He went on to lose his Dublin North-West seat in 2020.
Attempts to try and keep constituencies roughly at 30,000 people per TD can also throw up strange geographic anomalies.
One example is the “Frankenstein” Sligo-Leitrim constituency that includes part of Donegal and Roscommon (and previously incorporated some of Cavan).
The yet-to-be passed Electoral Reform Bill sets out the parameters for the new commission’s constituency reviews.
The next Dáil can have up to 179 TDs and each constituency can have three, four or five TDs.
Will the government take any pre-budget action?
The breaching of county boundaries is to be avoided “as far as practicable”.
With the final census results due in April 2023, the Electoral Commission’s constituency reports for the Dáil and European Parliament are expected around July 2023. After that, it will be a matter for the Oireachtas to legislate for revised constituency boundaries.
Dr Adrian Kavanagh of Maynooth University’s Department of Geography reckons that a decision will be taken to increase Dáil numbers from 160 to 176 or 178 as this would futureproof the numbers for a while.
If they are increased by this level an early analysis he carried out on the basis of the preliminary Census results shows Dublin would probably get five extra seats and Cork would get two.
Donegal, Wexford and Tipperary could get an extra seat each provided the legislation is changed to allow six-seat constituencies — or each of these counties could be split into two three-seat constituencies.
Extra seat
There would be an extra seat for Kildare, Meath and the Carlow-Kilkenny area.
Dr Kavanagh suggested six-seat constituencies should be allowed as it could help protect county boundaries in a redraw. He said “bad decisions” have been made in previous changes to boundaries and sometimes the officials involved “get lost in the numbers game”.
The political parties are bracing for the possible changes.
One political strategist said it will be a case of “the bigger the next Dáil, the more changes in boundaries” and unless the Constitution changes there will “always be an issue with square pegs and round holes”.
Another political source said Leinster House is “already rife with speculation on what will happen”.
As for how it will affect the fortunes of the different political parties it is impossible to tell at this stage.
The source said: “Until you know where the lines are drawn and you examine the tallies from the previous election, it’s very difficult to predict what the net impact of any change is going to be.”
