Warnings from Green Party members and supporters that the agreement of a satisfactory plan for cutting greenhouse gas emissions is essential for the continuation of the Government should not be taken lightly.
But neither should the objections of farmers and their representatives, nor the implications for many Government backbenchers if farmers could not live with a deal and commenced a full-scale campaign against it. That too would threaten the future of the Coalition.
This means the ongoing negotiations between Eamon Ryan (the Green leader and Minister for Climate) and Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue and their officials, with the other party leaders waiting to approve or finally conclude a deal, are in many respects the most politically consequential since the Coalition was formed more than two years ago.
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Sure, there were fraught moments for the Government during the pandemic and latterly during the Ukrainian refugee crisis. There have been wobbles over the infractions of Ministers and the embarrassment of Golfgate. There have been mistakes and rows and argy-bargy behind the scenes over myriad issues. But there has not been a split along party lines on something that goes to the heart of the agreement underpinning this Government. But there is now.
The agreement on climate action is central to the raison d’etre of the Coalition. This is not just the deal that the Green Party made with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – it is the deal that the Green Party made with itself. That it would go into Government with the parties it regarded as conservative climate laggards, in hock to the agrifood industry, if it could get them to guarantee substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In return for this, the Greens would put up with lots of things it did not necessarily like in Government.
There was substantial opposition to this in the Green Party, partly because some people didn’t think Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would keep their word, partly because others did not think the deal was good enough. But the membership approved it overwhelmingly.
Climate politics is here to stay
The Greens got their climate legislation, setting down in law the obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 51 per cent by 2030. But that was only the first stage. The Government is now working out exactly by how much each sector of the economy will have to cut its emissions to achieve that target. As was always likely, the sticking point has been agriculture.
The Government last year fudged the question, identifying a reduction range of 22-30 per cent for agriculture. Now, the time comes to agree on a number – and how it is going to be reached. Farming bodies and many backbench TDs insist on no more than 22 per cent, but the Greens say they won’t settle for that, not least because it means that other sectors would be hit with unreachable targets in order to make up the slack from the highest-emitting sector.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar do not have complete freedom of action on this. Both are vulnerable to backbench revolts and neither wants to face a full-scale campaign against their Government in rural Ireland. Sources suggest that both believe they have brought their parties farther on climate action than anyone thought possible, and there is some truth in that. But it’s also true that in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half, they will have to bring them, sooner or later, a lot further again.
The sense around Leinster House and Government Buildings on Wednesday night was that progress is being made and that the consequences of failing to reach a deal should push the two sides towards one.
But there is no certainty of that. And no mistaking the gravity of the moment for the Coalition.
