The issue of who will lead the Social Democrats last arose in 2021 when a group of party activists and two councillors signed a draft letter calling for a contest.
They paid tribute to the party’s co-leaders Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall for their “exceptional work” but added that “it is now time to move to the next stage”.
At the time sources said one motivation behind seeking a contest was to offer the new leader time to prepare for the next general election.
The proposal for a contest went nowhere, with all of four Social Democrat TDs rowing in behind the leadership.
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Shortly afterwards, at the party’s think-in, Murphy and Shortall confirmed they expected to lead the party into the next election.
So why go now?
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Shortall said they thought about the decision for “many months” and considered the election cycle in their deliberations. She said they want to ensure the next leader has time to “bed in and get established” and the timing is good for that. This is not too different from the argument made by party activists calling for a contest in 2021.
Both Murphy and Shortall insist they were not pushed by anyone in the Social Democrats. Party sources say the same.
The national executive of the party is expected to meet on Thursday night to discuss the leadership election process. If the election is contested by multiple candidates it will be one member, one vote, as per the party’s constitution.
The prospect of another joint leadership has not been ruled out. With just four other TDs and no senators, there is a small pool of prospective replacements for Murphy and Shortall.
A report that Cork South-West TD Holly Cairns is the heir apparent and would be unopposed in a leadership run was privately dismissed as “speculation” by one party source on Wednesday evening.
Others said they had no knowledge of any such arrangement.
Both Cairns and Dublin Central’s Gary Gannon are perhaps the most high-profile of the Social Democrats’ non-co-leader TDs. But that’s not to say Wicklow’s Jennifer Whitmore or Cian O’Callaghan of Dublin Bay North might not fancy a crack at the leadership. None were commenting on their intentions on Wednesday.
Aside from who will be the new leader, the other perennial question that has arisen is whether or not the Social Democrats will ultimately merge with the Labour Party given their similarities. Both Murphy and Shortall were former members of the Labour Party but there is no love lost between them and their former comrades.
They have often been seen as the biggest barrier to any potential merger but it would be a mistake to see them as the only stumbling block.
They confirmed they will stay in politics and will contest the next general election.
Regardless of their departure as co-leaders they will remain on as party grandees and they will be able to make their voices heard when it comes to the merger question.
The younger generation of Social Democrat politicians will not necessarily rush into the arms of Labour just because the pair are no longer leaders.
For many in the party Labour is associated with past coalitions with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and it is derided for participating in government during the austerity years that followed the economic crash.
More pressing questions for any successor to Murphy and Shortall will be which parties would the Social Democrats consider as coalition partners after the next election. The party is entering uncharted territory.
