The first Irish Times poll of 2023 is here, and it brings with it some reassurance for two of the “big three” parties - but a bit of a jolt for the third.
For Fine Gael, there will be a definite if not-very-audible sigh of relief. The party has had a rocky enough time since picking up the keys to the Taoiseach’s office again. There was not only the Damien English and Paschal Donohoe controversies, but also a nasty trolley crisis (albeit overseen by a Fianna Fáil Minister for Health). Leo Varadkar and his new Attorney General, Rossa Fanning, left a big Fine Gael imprint on the controversy over nursing home charges. Meanwhile, the Government shows no signs of fundamentally addressing the crisis in accommodation for refugees. Nonetheless, the party holds its own, steady on 22 per cent, with a slight dip in support for the Government overall and Varadkar personally. Heading into the spring, with the sails filled by another cost of living intervention, they’ll take it.
For Sinn Féin, the recent trend in Irish Times and other polling continues - the party is flatlining or slightly declining in support. But if it is in a plateau, what a position to be gliding along in - near-historic high levels of support, a whopping 13-point lead over Fine Gael, and a strong showing in voter support across all geographies, demographics and income cohorts.
If the return of Bertie Ahern reminded Fianna Fáil grassroots of its pomp, a three-point drop in support will reanimate some of the party’s deep-lying neuroses about its current place in Irish politics. Its poll numbers had recovered over the last 18 months or so, after a dramatic dip when it entered Government, slipping as low as 14 per cent. It will reassure itself that losing the Taoiseach’s office inevitably has a polling consequence. But again it will crystallise the medium-term strategic challenge for the party which is facing near irrelevance among younger voters and a dire situation in the capital, where it commands just 12 per cent of first preference intention. Micheál Martin has been remarkably successful at corralling his restive parliamentary party and left the office of Taoiseach looking confident and relaxed about the future. Whether that can be sustained on these polling numbers, much less if they decline further, is the question.
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll: the full results in charts
First election poll shows it wouldn’t take much for the race to start looking very tight
Voter volatility may yet cost Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in tight election finish
The Irish Times view on the latest opinion poll: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the driving seat
The most significant political development of the year so far has probably been the new salience of migration. Nationwide polling on party preference is limited when it comes to picking up what could ultimately be meaningful shifts in attitudes or preferences - but at least on these numbers, voters do not appear to be peeling away from any of the main parties - yet. The received wisdom is that Aontú and Peadar Tóibín, who has skillfully positioned his party in recent months, might be well placed to capitalise on the issue as the only party that wholly slots into the nationalist-traditionalist space - but their support falls below 1 per cent. We shall see.
Best reads
On the back of this morning’s Irish Times poll, political editor Pat Leahy writes that all is to play for when it comes to the composition of the next government.
Pollster Damian Loscher writes that the gap between the macro-economic picture and the lived experience of some voters is a space in which Sinn Féin has thrived.
The big political news yesterday was the departure of Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy as co-leaders of the Social Democrats. Read Cormac McQuinn’s analysis of the development here.
Electoral finances are turning into a long war between the parties. Pat Leahy looks at how Fine Gael are looking to turn the tables on Sinn Féin after recent revelations.
Miriam Lord on a busy day of confessions and departures in Leinster House.
Northern Editor Freya McClements looks at whether British PM Rishi Sunak can cut a Northern Ireland protocol deal acceptable to the DUP and EU.
Harry McGee’s report on the Oireachtas female caucus meeting with the Ceann Comhairle is here (and contains the line of the day from Jennifer Carroll MacNeill: “I think it would help a lot if the small people who are doing this would stop being such complete knobs”).
Playbook
Ministerial outings today include Simon Harris and Heather Humphreys in Raheny, while the Taoiseach and Darragh O’Brien will be up the coast in Drogheda at midday.
Back on the Leinster House campus, Ms Humphreys has oral questions at 9am, followed by Simon Coveney at 10.30am. There will be a minute’s silence at midday to commemorate the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, before Micheál Martin takes leader’s questions. Topical issues is at 5.15pm, and the Dáil adjourns for the week after 7pm.
The Seanad sits from 9.30am, hearing motions on the invasion of Ukraine and the Citizens’ Assembly on Drugs, as well as statements on the rail network, before adjourning at 2.45pm.
The Public Accounts Committee sits at 9.30am with officials from the Revenue Commissioners, the Department of Finance and the Central Bank. Pre-legislative scrutiny continues of the planning Bill at the housing committee. The disability matters committee launches a report at 10.30am on Aligning Disability Services and the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.
The full schedules for the Dáil, Seanad and committees can be found here.
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