Emerging from the gates of Hillsborough Castle last Wednesday evening, DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson was upbeat.
After nearly two years of political deadlock, the mood had shifted and the following morning he went further by pronouncing the “time was approaching” for a decision on returning to Stormont.
Yet within 48 hours, he did an about-turn and insisted in an email to party members he would not be distracted by “hype” over a proposed UK government financial package or be “calendar-led”.
The momentum built up for a pre-Christmas return to powersharing was beginning to dissipate and by Monday morning it was gone; the DUP had ruled out a deal that would lead to the Assembly’s recall this week.
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Throughout the stalemate there have been repeated comparisons between the internal party crisis faced by Mr Donaldson and that of the late Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader David Trimble, who, in the run-up to the fraught Belfast Agreement negotiations 25 years ago, was accused of “selling out” by UUP opponents in order to get the landmark peace deal over the line.
Donaldson’s “Trimble moment” has been used to the point of cliche over the past year to describe the DUP leader’s position – but it has never rung more true than now.
The £2.5 billion deal offered by the UK government last week towards tackling Stormont’s dire finances and public sector pay dispute is only a starting figure, with all the main political parties now lobbying for an enhanced settlement at Tuesday’s “technical talks” at Hillsborough Castle.
Separate exhaustive negotiations between the DUP and London on post-Brexit trading arrangements are almost concluded after 20 months, with sources saying that while concessions have been gained on the operation of so-called “green lane” goods, there are no fundamental changes to the Windsor Framework agreement drawn up between the EU and UK government to replace the Northern Ireland Protocol deal earlier this year.
[ ‘Much more’ needed from UK government on NI funding model, Donaldson saysOpens in new window ]
Outside Hillsborough Castle on Monday, posters emblazoned with “Stop DUP sellout” were attached to lamp-posts; the same posters were overnight on Sunday outside the DUP leader’s constituency office in Lisburn and that of another party colleague in Co Down.
“Cowards,” Donaldson branded them in a social media post, and said he would not be “intimidated” by their “shadowy behaviour”, accusing more hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party members of being behind the incident and comparing them to militant republicans.
TUV leader Jim Allister – who the DUP leader once shared a platform with at controversial anti-protocol rallies – had no problem holding his hands up on Monday afternoon to confirm his party members were involved, because “grassroots unionism” has “had enough”.
“The DUP leader tells us he is involved with a difficult British government to get a deal and yet he tells us that a poster is intimidating. My goodness, you need a lot more bottle than that if you are going to get a deal out of the British government to reverse the protocol damage,” Allister told the BBC.
As hopes of a breakthrough slipped away throughout Monday, sources say that a new year deal is still a possibility.
Timing is crucial as anger mounts among public sector workers, with further strike action due to take place next month by teachers; walkouts by bus and train drivers and NHS staff have also caused widespread disruption as they demand the same pay as their counterparts in Britain.
[ A dysfunctional Northern Ireland makes a united Ireland more attractiveOpens in new window ]
Amid the protracted negotiations, new deadlines and crippling cost-of-living crisis, the pressure on Donaldson to act has never been more intense.
Ultimately it comes down to his leadership, his “bottle” and whether he has the ability to take the more hardline members of the party with him.
In an interview with David Trimble’s son, Nicholas Trimble, to mark the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement, he told this newspaper: “Dad took unionism to a place it had never been before; then there was that kickback ... For other parties, getting the deal over the line was it. They were done and exited stage left; whereas Dad almost had a harder job post-agreement.”
Does Jeffrey Donaldson have the courage of Trimble to risk his political career or is he content to remain in limbo to win votes in advance of next year’s general election?
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