The emphatic rejection of referendums on care and family over the weekend has led to a growing nervousness in Goverment about increased voter volatility with a number of elections on the horizon.
The Coalition parties were left reeling after the historic loss, with Ministers deeply troubled not only by the defeat, but by the scale of the No vote on proposals that had the support of almost all political parties.
In advance of the local and European elections in June and a possible general election later this year, one Government source said the results were “seismic”.
The care referendum, which proposed deleting the reference to a woman’s life in the home and a mother’s duties in the home and replacing it with a recognition of care within the family, fell after a record 73.9 per cent No vote. There was a 67.69 per cent No vote in the referendum on family, which proposed extending the definition of family to unions based on “durable relationships” as well as those based on marriage.
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The immediate aftermath saw recriminations within the Coalition, with Minister of State Mary Butler, a Fianna Fáil TD, telling RTÉ radio on Sunday that “not everybody got behind this across Government”.
Ms Butler said she was referring to colleagues across all three parties. She said voters “gave us a kicking” and that the Government’s explanations of the proposed constitutional changes “didn’t meet the threshold of certainty for many people and we have to take ownership of this”.
‘Two wallops’ for Government as No-No vote emerges strong
Catherine Cox, head of policy with Family Carers Ireland, which campaigned for Yes votes on both proposals, said that if the wording for the care referendum had “gone further ... Then I do believe we would have had a very different outcome”.
Ministers expect the immediate fallout will be contained but worry that the Coalition’s confidence will have been dented by such a bad misjudgment of the electorate, creating potential for more shock results and voter backlash as the year goes on.
“The scale of volatility and unpredictability in Ireland is even greater than it was in 2020,” one Cabinet source said. “There’s a frustration and impatience within the electorate and that volatility could spew itself in any direction.”
Asked on Saturday about the potential ramifications of the No votes, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said there was “no particular boost” when a government won or lost a referendum, but he acknowledged it was “two wallops” for the Coalition from the electorate.
Minister for Enterprise Simon Coveney said it “doesn’t necessarily carry over into local elections or European elections or general elections”.
A Government source said the outcome of the next general election was “even more unpredictable than it already was” following the weekend’s results, arguing that the outcome could be “unworkable” based on current polling and political volatility.
Privately, some Coalition figures were deeply critical of the decision to hold the referendum at all, as well as the manner in which the campaign was conducted. Former minister Charlie Flanagan has asked for an early meeting of the Fine Gael parliamentary party to discuss the outcome.
He has raised concerns with party colleagues about a range of issues the Government may have to tackle before a general election that could spark a backlash from voters, including assisted dying, implementing the recommendations of a review of Ireland’s abortion laws and extending pub opening hours.
Coalition figures said that more progressive issues could take a back seat in the coming months with parties instead emphasising core issues seen to be popular with their base. “In terms of political priorities, it’s tax, jobs and police,” a Fine Gael source said.
Mr Varadkar told a Fine Gael selection convention in Tipperary yesterday that the Government had struggled to explain what Yes votes would do for people. He signalled that referendums would in future be fought on issues that enable people to do something they cannot already do, and that cannot be tackled by legislation or regulation.
A Fianna Fáil Minister complained that the government had focused on “niche things”, arguing that the message from the electorate was to refocus on big issues. Multiple sources said the referendum results made the prospect of an earlier general election less likely.
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