Leo Varadkar’s bombshell announcement that he will step down as leader of Fine Gael (FG) with immediate effect has turned the political world momentarily upside down.
The move shocked Government and Opposition politicians alike; none more so than his potential successors in Fine Gael, who are all, for now, maintaining a judicious silence about their future intentions. They will have to make up their minds soon enough, though; politics is a forward looking business, and it moves on quickly to the next thing. And the next thing is: who will lead Fine Gael?
Both Fianna Fáil (FF) and the Green Party have made clear that they expect the Coalition agreement to continue under the new leader of Fine Gael.
So the proposed order of events is: Fine Gael picks a new leader in time for its ardfheis on April 6th – Varadkar resigns as Taoiseach when the Dáil meets the following week – the Dáil (with its FF-FG-Green majority, plus the support of some Independents) elects the new Fine Gael leader as Taoiseach, and then approves the Cabinet. And things continue as heretofore.
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This sober scenario means that the Government is required to be collectively imbued with the level-headedness necessary to ignore the likely deafening clamour for a general election from the Opposition. That might seem unlikely given the febrile political atmosphere created by Wednesday’s announcement, but things will clam down; they always do. Politicians will make judgments about their own interests. It is very clearly in the political interests of the Coalition to avoid an immediate general election.
Indeed, the change of leader probably lengthens on the odds on an election taking place this year. The new taoiseach will want to spend a bit of time being taoiseach before they try to get re-elected.
The Green and FF leaders are likely to seek clarity from the prospective new taoiseach on the date for the general election before they march their troops through the division lobbies. That may push the date into next year – early March, perhaps before the St Patrick’s Day exodus. The last possible date is March 22nd, 2025.
Breaking news: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to step down - listen to his full speech
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has announced he is to step down. Listen to his full speech in this bonus episode. More to follow.
So why did Varadkar do it? Around Leinster House, and beyond, it’s the question on everyone’s lips. In his press conference, the now outgoing Taoiseach cited “personal and political” reasons; the political ones, at least, have been mounting up. His party has had obvious problems for some time.
The anticipated bounceback once Varadkar regained the Taoiseach’s office in late 2022 has not materialised. In the meantime, there has been a mini-exodus of FG TDs, with 10 announcing they will not contest the election. Varadkar’s departure – it is assumed he will not stand in the next general election – brings it to more than a third of the 35 TDs who won seats in 2020 who will not now stand again. In a system that rewards incumbency, that makes for an uphill struggle.
The truth is, really, that Fine Gael is a party in deep trouble. The polls are flaccid; persistently so. More importantly, after three terms in Government it lacks a sense of direction, purpose and forward momentum. That can only come from the top.
[ Leo Varadkar: Clear-thinking, decisive politician without the common touchOpens in new window ]
But as some TDs and Ministers have privately admitted in recent months when the subject of Varadkar’s leadership was quietly discussed, many have seen no sign of that. In a way, despite being in the midst of its most successful political run ever, Fine Gael is in a sort of slow-moving crisis, only discernible if you really look for it. Varadkar’s departure is both a symptom of, but also worsens, that situation.
To that political analysis is added the reality of Varadkar’s personal circumstances. He has already spent half his life in politics. Since coming out as a gay man in 2015, his life has changed hugely. He has found the inconveniences of political fame more, not less, irritating as time has gone on. Of late, some colleagues and acquaintances have doubted his appetite for the political fray; he is less totally consumed by politics than he once was.
Though this is not the place to ruminate on his achievements or otherwise, it is incontestable that he will leave the stage after a career that was more consequential than many.
Politicians live and die by elections. Varadkar’s 2020 general election performance as leader of his party disappointed many of the supporters who backed him as the candidate who could reach parts of the electorate previously unavailable to Fine Gael.
Varadkar is naturally a self-critical person; it is clearly his analysis that the next election would be no better for him. He has not shied away from the consequences of that conclusion. His party’s difficulties remain. But that will be someone else’s job now.
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