Simon Harris is the early front-runner to become the new leader of Fine Gael and taoiseach after his Cabinet colleague Simon Coveney ruled himself out of contention.
However, Coalition insiders said a contest for the leadership was a strong possibility and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe in particular should not be ruled out.
Amid deep shock across the political system after Taoiseach Leo Varadkar announced he would stand down, speculation on who would succeed him centred on Minister for Further and Higher Education Mr Harris, Minister for Enterprise Mr Coveney, Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys, Minister for Justice Helen McEntee and Mr Donohoe.
Aside from Mr Coveney, none had ruled themselves out of contention on Wednesday evening, with Government Chief Whip Hildegarde Naughton and Minister of State for Financial Services Jennifer Carroll MacNeill also refusing to be drawn. Mr Coveney told RTÉ news he thought there would be a contest for the leadership, with former cabinet minister Regina Doherty saying that would be her preference.
Election 2024: TV bust up and SF down but not out - here’s what went on in week one of campaigning
Election 2024 live updates: Mick Wallace confirms he will run, Soc Dems pledge to reintroduce ban on no-fault evictions
If you want to know what’s going to happen in Election 2024, these four constituencies tell the story
The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll: the full results in charts
Coalition sources indicated a belief that at the starting point Mr Harris was best placed to prevail in any contest, with a view among Ministers that he had assiduously cultivated sufficient support on the Fine Gael backbenches.
The Fine Gael executive council met on Wednesday evening when it was decided that nominations would open at 10am on Thursday and close at 1pm on Monday. Potential nominees must garner the support of 10 per cent of the parliamentary party – six nominations from TDs, Senators or MEPs.
If there is a contest, it is expected there would be three hustings around the country next week and voting the following week. The Fine Gael electoral college heavily favours the votes of members of the parliamentary party, which carry a weighting of 65 per cent in a leadership election, followed by 25 per cent for party members and 10 per cent for councillors.
The expectation is that a winner will be declared before the Fine Gael Ardfheis on April 6th. The Dáil will then meet on April 9th to elect a new taoiseach.
A spokeswoman for Mr Donohoe said on Wednesday: “Minister Donohoe has answered this question in the past and has nothing further to say on this today.” Mr Donohoe has previously ruled himself out of leading Fine Gael. A spokeswoman for Helen McEntee declined to comment. She is due to speak to the media on Thursday morning.
There was no comment, either, from Mr Harris or Ms Humphreys.
Senior Ministers were shocked by Mr Varadkar’s decision but did not view it as immediately threatening the Coalition, although their assessment was the Government was facing more risks, especially if an incoming leader enjoyed a polling bounce that could tempt them into an early general election.
Mr Varadkar told his parliamentary party meeting: “In the absence of anyone trying to stab me in the back, I have decided to fall on my own sword.”
He also disclosed to colleagues that perhaps he had risen too quickly through the party ranks, suggesting his leadership of Fine Gael and of the country had come too early.
- Listen to our Inside Politics Podcast for the latest analysis and chat
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
