What on earth happened to Sinn Féin?
Sinn Féin is set to endure its worst election results since it became a significant player in politics on this side of the Border more than two decades ago.
True, the party will gain some seats over its poor 2019 performance. But that cannot hide the magnitude of the disaster. “Today was not our day, but we will have our day,” party leader Mary Lou McDonald said at the RDS, making a show of defiance. She knows that questions will be asked about her leadership now.
In the days before election day, Sinn Féiners hoped that the polls were wrong. And they were. They overestimated Sinn Féin support. That suggests the freefall in support for the party has accelerated during the campaign period. The results represent a stunning reversal for the party that must now regroup and recover before a general election – whose timetable has probably been accelerated by the emerging results.
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The party has lost – give or take – about a quarter of a million voters since the last general election. Another additional quarter of a million or more intended to vote for Sinn Féin at some stage over the past few years, but since changed their mind. Why?
The easy answer is migration – that Sinn Féin has been caught offside with many of its nationalist voters who have much less liberal attitudes to migration than the party line, which is in any case hard to distinguish from the Government position. And that is undoubtedly part of it. But it’s not the full story. The slide in the polls started before migration became an issue.
There has been a series of controversies and political missteps over the past 18 months that have coincided with the Sinn Féin slide in the polls. There was the excruciatingly embarrassing trial of Jonathan Dowdall, a former Sinn Féin councillor and supporter of McDonald’s. There was a rash of lawsuits by party figures, including McDonald, against the media and political opponents. There was a series of U-turns and flip-flops on political issues, such as the hate crime/hate speech Bill.
There was the cack-handed response of a motion of no confidence in the Minister for Justice Helen McEntee as a response to the Dublin riots. There was the suggestion last December of bringing down house prices in Dublin to an average of €300,000 – which, after months and months of taunting in the Dáil, was last week amended to the suggestion that this would be the price of houses in an affordable housing scheme. There was the support for the Government’s disastrous referendums, and a promise to hold them again if defeated.
Whatever you think of any of them individually, it’s a long list.
More profoundly, though, the party failed to capitalise on the opportunity it had when it seized the banner of change in 2020. To do this, to lock down the support of the Shinner-curious voters who were telling pollsters that would vote for the party over the last few years, the party needed to spell out what change would mean, and how it would make people’s lives better.
But it didn’t. Instead, it began to alienate the supporters who wanted radical change by seeking to reassure its newer supporters that the change it offered wouldn’t upset any of the things they like about the country. Like when Pearse Doherty went to London to reassure clients of Davy stockbrokers. On one level, this is sensible preparation for government. But to people who want radical change, it looks like a sell-out. It’s not impossible to ride these two horses. But it’s not easy, that’s for sure.
McDonald proved to be a brilliant outsider, knocking on the door demanding change. But the next phase of Opposition and preparation for government – being a credible taoiseach-in-waiting – has proved much more difficult. How does she pick it up from here?
Well, they have done it before. But rather than a reinvention, a back-to-basics approach seems more likely.
McDonald hinted weakly at this in her interview with Claire Byrne on RTÉ radio last week, with references to the Galway tent and brown envelopes. Maybe this will work. But it seems a bit retro for a political audience that has clearly moved on. And focusing on past misdeeds is, you’d have thought, a risky strategy for Sinn Féin.
The truth is there is no easy way out for McDonald. Her party faces a daunting challenge.
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