It is the morning after the weekend before for political nerds.
But get that caffeine into you because it would be a mistake to think it is all over after just two days of drama at election count centres.
In some places the party (am I really describing it as that?) is really only getting started as none of Ireland’s 14 European Parliament seats have been filled as of yet.
Here’s the state of play as of 7am on Monday morning.
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In the local elections some 805 of 949 seats have been filled but counting is complete in just 13 of the 31 local authorities.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are vying to be the largest part in local government, with both on just under 23 per cent of the vote and 212 and 199 seats respectively.
Despite both parties heading for seat losses compared with the 2019 election, they are happy as they have exceeded expectations based on polls going back many months.
Sinn Féin on the other hand, while expecting to gain seats on its disastrous result five years ago, is having another nightmare, with the party on just under 12 per cent of the vote and 89 seats.
Jennifer Bray has had a look at how its hugely ambitious election strategy has fallen flat.
It is all a bit topsy turvy but the main Coalition parties’ performance means that the pressure is on for Taoiseach Simon Harris to call a general election this year, as Political Editor Pat Leahy reports in our lead today.
In a separate analysis, Leahy says: “Comments by Taoiseach Simon Harris at the RDS yesterday, when he brushed off suggestions of an early dash to the country, did little to dampen speculation that the stronger-than-expected showing by the three Coalition parties, bolstered by an apparent trend to transfer between them, will alter the stated election timing for next March.”
In terms of the smaller parties the other Coalition party, the Greens (on 3.6 per cent with 21 seats), may lose half of its councillors but could limit its losses with a strong showing in Dublin, as Jack Horgan-Jones reports.
Sarah Burns has looked at how the Social Democrats and Aontú are expected to make gains with Labour expected to hold in and around the 57 seats it won in 2019.
As of this morning the situation was Labour on 5.3 per cent of the vote and 48 seats; Social Democrats on 3.5 per cent and 31 seats; and People Before Profit-Solidarity on 1.5 per cent and 10 seats.
Perhaps the biggest winners in the local elections - though by definition they are not a coherent group – are the Independents with more than 28 per cent of the first preference vote.
As of this morning, 195 of them had been elected – just three short of 2019′s total, with many seats yet to be filled.
And how fared candidates with platforms criticising immigration policy?
They have taken a scattering of seats, with the potential for a few more around the country, but have not emerged from these elections as a powerful force in Irish politics.
As for the European elections, counting will really only get under way in earnest today.
There was a first count result in Dublin last night that saw Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews top the poll followed closely enough behind by Regina Doherty of Fine Gael, with both falling short of the quota but primed to take seats.
There will be an almighty battle between Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan, The Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin of Labour, Independent Ireland’s Niall Boylan, Clare Daly of Independents4Change and People Before Profit’s Bríd Smith for the other two seats.
It could be some time before we see first count results in Ireland South and Midlands-North-West, and the counts are expected to go on for days.
Many coffees/Red Bulls will be needed in the days ahead.
Best Reads
Follow live coverage of all of today’s action with our Live Story here.
Also tune in to the latest Inside Politics Election Daily podcast, where a buoyant Taoiseach Simon Harris makes a guest appearance to dismiss calls for an election.
Miriam Lord was in the RDS yesterday and while Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald was “chief mourner”, Taoiseach Simon Harris was doing a “lap of honour” at count centres.
For a Europe-wide view Jack Power reports that European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has said the early results across the EU showed that that centre was “holding” in the face of threats from the political extremes. While far-right parties have made significant gains in several European countries, the current governing majority of the centre-right European People’s Party (which includes Fine Gael), centre-left Socialists and Democrats and centrist Renew (Fianna Fáil’s grouping) will remain intact.
In Germany, Derek Scally reports that the far-right has made advances in the European election while the coalition parties lost out.
And there will be a snap parliamentary election in France after president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right movement in the European election.
Playbook
Counting resumes around the country to fill the remaining local authority seats, some of which may take some time to fill.
For instance Marie O’Halloran is reporting that there will be a complete recount in the Blackrock local electoral area in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown after Independent Cormac Lucey challenged the result that saw him lose out to Fine Gael’s Dan Carson by just two votes.
European election votes on those long, unwieldy ballot papers will be counted in Dublin, Cork and Castlebar.
Expect most of the earlier action to be in the Dublin constituency, and perhaps Ireland South during the day.
A first count is not expected in Midlands-North-West – where there are 27 candidates – until the afternoon at the earliest.
Meanwhile, don’t forget about Limerick, where the counting of votes gets under way as the city and county chooses Ireland’s first directly elected mayor.
With 15 candidates in the field do not expect a result today. A final cross-party tally of voting had former Department of Finance secretary general John Moran, an Independent candidate, in the lead at 24 per cent of the vote. That was eight percentage points ahead of businesswoman Helen O’Donnell, another Independent, on 16 per cent.
The tally suggested Fianna Fáil’s Dee Ryan was on 14 per cent, Daniel Butler of Fine Gael was on 13 per cent and Sinn Féin’s Maurice Quinlivan was on 10 per cent. But remember, not a single vote has been counted yet.
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