Good morning,
Tuesday has recently become the day when people step down from their jobs around Leinster House - Leo Varadkar, Eamon Ryan, Michael McGrath, to name a few recent examples. In truth, the fact that Simon Coveney tweeted news that he wouldn’t be running again on a Wednesday was just about the only thing surprising about an announcement that had long been expected from one of the big beasts of Irish politics for more than a decade.
Coveney’s decision is almost the final step in a changing of the guard, most particularly in Fine Gael, but also among a generation of politicians who have held cabinet positions since 2011. Among current Ministers, only Micheál Martin held office before then; Coveney’s decision, along with the impending retirement of Brendan Howlin and Richard Bruton, means the only survivor from that cohort is Varadkar, appointed Minister for Transport in March 2011 by Enda Kenny. It has been a remarkable period in Irish politics and public life, taking in the Troika, the equal marriage and repeal referendums and the Covid pandemic, to name just a few milestones.
In public, Varadkar has insisted his mind is not made up on whether to run in the next general election. Privately, many of his colleagues in Leinster House believe the former taoiseach is in the last lap of his political career. In truth, the decisions of Varadkar and a handful of his colleagues on whether to run do not fundamentally change the nature of the problem facing Simon Harris: he is already defending a dozen seats without the benefit of incumbency. That number may increase, depending on the decisions of a handful more - Damien English, Varadkar, Joe Carey, Michael Ring and Bernard Durkan (although the Kildare North TD was insistent he was running on Wednesday and said there would be no change “unless I die in the meantime”).
The complexion of this challenge has changed due to the much more positive outlook for Fine Gael since Harris’s ascension: things always look less troubling when your polling is good and the opposition is struggling. Harris insists he is not worried, saying the party is “re-generating in real time” and promising the Cork South Central nomination will be hotly contested following Coveney’s decision to step aside. The latter certainly seems to be the case, as Cormac McQuinn reports.
But that shouldn’t obscure the challenge, which in all likelihood is going to grow before we know its final dimensions come the end of September, when Fine Gael tickets must be decided.
Best Reads
Pat Leahy’s profile of Coveney is here
Arthur Beesley has the inside story on issues at the Peter McVerry trust
Newton Emerson on the differences between Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar - and how they might impact UK-Irish relations
Finn McRedmond urges us not to blame Jill Biden for her husband’s decisions
Miriam Lord on a fleeting truce in the Dáil, which spoke with one voice over the shocking case of Tori Towey on Wednesday
The latest edition of the Inside Politics podcast took a look at politics in Dublin’s north inner city
Playbook
Heather Humphreys is launching the Department of Social Protection’s pre-budget forum at 10am in Dublin Castle, while Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe are out at the Aviva Stadium with Kieran O’Donnell and European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni. Darragh O’Brien is in Donabate to mark the second anniversary of the First Home Scheme.
Back on the Leinster House campus, Dublin-based Fianna Fáil Senators and TDs are launching a survey on anti-social behaviour in Dublin city centre - this group has been critical of Helen McEntee before, so sparks may fly.
The last day of term in the Dáil kicks off at 9am with oral questions for Peter Burke, followed by Norma Foley at 10.30am. There is a minute’s silence to commemorate the Srebrenica massacre at noon, followed by Leaders’ Questions and Questions on Policy or Legislation before lunch. The afternoon is given over to the pre-summer break legislative rush, before statements by TDs who have been elected as MEPs at 7.31pm.
Topical issues follow, with the Dáil rising for its summer break shortly before 10pm.
The full schedule is here.
Commencement matters in the Seanad are at 9.30am before the order of business at 10.30am. Legislation on student letting is due to go through all stages in the late morning, and in the afternoon, the Seanad will debate a Bill requiring that pornographic material online be subject to an age-verification requirement.
Here’s the full Seanad schedule.
The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) is meeting officials from the Department of Agriculture at 9.30am, while at the same time the Oireachtas committee on drugs use is meeting. The committee on the Traveller community is hearing from Alan Dillon alongside officials on Traveller accommodation policy.
At midday the tourism and arts committee is launching a report on development of local and community arts, and at 1.30pm the housing committee is hosting officials from the Department of Housing on the draft national planning framework.
Here’s the full schedule for the committees.
Things to keep an eye on: Tori Towey may return to Dublin; Cathal Crotty’s dismissal from the Defence Forces is also due.
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