Story of the Week
Inevitably, the budget dominated this week - how could it not, given the billions on display? The Government has come in for expected flak over specific measures, including the generosity and untargeted nature of some spending (which prompted concerns internally, as we report today). But it would be surprising if any of it properly stuck - recall the firm signal sent from voters in Irish Times polling last month - as the nights get colder and darker, there is a clear expectation for the State to deploy resources to help voters out. The politics of this are straightforward in the near term - notwithstanding the slings and arrows thrown by the opposition. The trickier thing will be in the long term - specifically for whatever administration begins to wind down the spending binge deployed to cushion households from the cost of living.
This budget will likely recede into the realms of preamble, with the focus now firmly shifting to the general election - and the interminable Kremlinology over when it will happen. Watch this space for more of that, I’m sure.
Bust up
It’s more of a slow-motion thing than a full scale bust up, but the increasing friction between coalition leaders is clear. Micheál Martin warned last night at the Dublin Chamber dinner that voters had to be shown that the coalition is “putting the people before politics”, in what is seen as another thinly-veiled swipe at his coalition partners - which is also apparently playing out behind the scenes.
We also hear that Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman went to the wall in budget negotiations over his baby boost, facing down concern from ministers about the untargeted nature of the measure. The Greens were particularly active this budget season, clearly of the view that if they’re going to boost their chances in the election, they have to own policies with a broad appeal beyond their ecologically-focused base
None of these are coalition threateners in and of themselves, but there are clear cracks in the facade of the government as the election beckons. Some of these are, of course, contrived for appearances - but the dying days of a government are always a balancing act under pressure.
Banana skin
The general election date is, of course, focusing minds. It seems no matter what day is chosen, there will be theories about how it might backfire due to school closures, rugby internationals, or any number of confounding factors that fall around it.
Winners and losers
Winners: taxpayers with children, due to get an early Christmas present from the government. And the Christmas Babies, of course.
Losers: The restaurant lobby, who saw their full-court press seeking the return of the lower 9 pe cent VAT rate come to naught - in the final assessment, this always looked like a non-starter, despite the efforts of Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke
The Big Read
Biccies and budgets - inside the room when the final decisions were made on Budget 2025
Our obituary of Mary O’Rourke is here: Fianna Fáil grandee blessed with deep political stamina
Jennifer Bray will have a piece in Saturday’s paper looking at how prepared the parties REALLY are for a general election. And some of the colourful theories about the timing of said contest.
Hear here
We had plenty more budget blather on Wednesday as the team picked over the entrails of Tuesday’s announcement: https://www.irishtimes.com/podcasts/inside-politics/
Depending on when you read this newsletter, our Friday wrap podcast may also be available, you lucky things.
Here’s Pat Leahy on why November 8th doesn’t suit Fine Gael for the election.
[November 8th] Ireland are playing the All Blacks. The guys are going to be all in Lansdowne Road watching it
— Pat Leahy
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