Good morning.
The Green Party is going to lose seats in the general election, but how many, and how much of a force it can be in government formation talks after the vote, is in play.
Certainly the party has struck a more strident pose in its efforts to establish a foothold in voters’ minds. This was evident on Tuesday, with both current leader Roderic O’Gorman and former leader Eamon Ryan at pains to point out in front of any microphone they passed that only their party can deliver on core issues.
With the Luas extension to Finglas going to Cabinet yesterday, O’Gorman emphasised that the Greens will be arguing that “if you want to see continued investment in public transport, it’s really important to have Greens in the next government”.
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On the same topic, plus carbon emissions and retrofitting, Ryan told reporters: “I think political will is the biggest issue. Will the next government have the same political will that this one has had?”, angling that the absence of the Greens could see that political will evaporate.
It’s a simple pitch to core Green voters, with a side-serving for people who can be convinced there is a win-win in aligning ecological concerns with quality of life issues. Polling around five per cent (and nine per cent in Dublin), the figures suggest the Greens have a base to build from, but convincing voters beyond that base remains elusive.
So it wasn’t surprising to see them pursue broad-brush policies in the budget, most notably the baby boost – and even making an (ultimately unsuccessful) pitch for a Green-tinged business support scheme. O’Gorman has also sought to establish an early leadership position in any centre-left bloc, suggesting talks between like-minded parties in that space before government formation talks proper get under way after the election.
The most pessimistic in Leinster House believe the Greens could see just two or three TDs in the next Dáil, all in Dublin. Beyond that, their chances in seats where their back is against the wall – such as Wicklow and Waterford – will rely on graft if the party is going to make a lasting breakthrough outside its traditional strong territories.
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Playbook
Off campus, the Social Democrats will launch their Childcare and Early Years Education policy in Merrion Square at 11am.
Darragh O’Brien is launching Respond’s annual report at 10am.
Action in the Dáil kicks off at 9.10am with topical issues before a Labour Party motion on public health staffing. Leaders’ Questions is at midday, followed by Questions on Policy or Legislation and Taoiseach’s Questions. In the afternoon, the pre-election legislative production line continues, with the Health Insurance Amendment Bill and Maternity Protection Bill. In the evening, it’s legislation on the Seanad franchise and Seanad amendments on the hate crime Bill.
The Seanad gets under way with commencement matters at 10.30am, before a lunchtime address by the mayor of Hiroshima.
In the committees, the health committee hears from the Irish Cardiac Society at 9.30am followed by Fórsa on staffing levels in the HSE. The budgetary oversight committee hears from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council at 5.30pm, at the same time as representatives from My Lovely Horse Rescue are in front of the agriculture committee.
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