Election 2024Constituency Profile

Mayo constituency profile: Addition of extra seat may help Rose Conway-Walsh retain Sinn Féin seat

Retirement of poll-topper Michael Ring leaves at least two openings

Mayo Constituency map
Election 2024: Mayo has gained a seat in the constituency review and is now a five-seater
Harry McGee's picture
Harry McGee
Thu Nov 07 2024 - 12:19

Outgoing TDs: Michael Ring (FG – retiring), Alan Dillon (FG), Dara Calleary (FF), Rose Conway-Walsh (SF)

Who are the candidates running in the Mayo constituency? Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Féin), Dara Calleary (Fianna Fáil), Alan Dillon (Fine Gael), Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fáil), Chris Maxwell (Independent Ireland), Martina Jennings (Fine Gael), Mark Duffy (Fine Gael), Paul Lawless (Aontú), Patsy O’Brien (Independent), Keira Keogh (Fine Gael), Stephen Kerr (Independent), Joe Daly (People Before Profit), Mícheál “Boxty” Ó Conaill (Green Party), Gerry Murray (Sinn Féin)

Mayo has gained a seat in the constituency review and is now a five-seater. In addition, the retirement of phenomenal poll-topper Michael Ring leaves at least two openings.

This is one of Fianna Fáil’s prime targets for a gain. Ballina-based Dara Calleary has comfortably retained his seat since first elected in 2007. Lisa Chambers lost her Dáil seat in 2020 to Rose Conway-Walsh of Sinn Féin. Since then she has maintained a high profile as Fianna Fáil leader in the Seanad and also as a candidate in the European elections last summer.

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Conway-Walsh saw her vote share more than double in 2020 from about 10 per cent to 23 per cent, allowing her to be elected on the first count. With Sinn Féin’s downward slide in the polls, she may find it difficult to repeat that performance, and it could be harder for her to attract transfers. That said, the addition of a fifth seat will aid her chances of retaining.

The loss of Michael Ring for Fine Gael is huge. The party has gambled on a four-candidate strategy with sitting TD Alan Dillion (based in Castlebar-Ballintubber) joined by Mark Duffy (a former Independent from North Mayo), Keira Keogh (seen as Michael Ring’s successor in west Mayo) and also the well-known CEO of the Mayo hospice Martina Jennings, who is from Garrymore in south Mayo. Her addition to the ticket may be part of a strategy to lessen the impact of former Fine Gael councillor Patsy O’Brien, now running as an Independent.

The last time Fine Gael ran four candidates in 2011, it won four out of five seats in the constituency. It says it is hoping for three but will probably end up with two, with Fianna Fáil on course for two and Sinn Féin holding its seat.

Geography and profile: Mayo has gained a seat after taking back a large tranche of territory in south Mayo from Galway West, including Shrule, Cong, Kilmaine and The Neale. It is a large county with a number of sizeable towns. Housing is a big issue for different reasons: because of a sparsity in tourist haven Westport, and because of dereliction in vacancy in other towns including Castlebar. Remote areas of the county have higher rates of deprivation and unemployment than average.

Possible outcome: FG2, FF2, SF 1