The votes were still being counted on Sunday night but Election 2024 already has some clear winners and losers. Politics can bring the highs of victory in a close-fought race and an opportunity to take the reins of power. It has some awful lows and rejection by the electorate can be a cruel experience. Here is a round-up of who was up and who was down as the results rolled in.
Winners
Micheál Martin
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has brought his party from the depths of its post-economic crash 2011 election misery to being the largest party in the Dáil for the second election running. A second grand coalition with Fine Gael is the most likely outcome of the election. Mr Martin’s party may not be enjoying the levels of support it had in decades past, but it will be the happiest of the ‘big three’ with the outcome of this election. Martin’s solid if unshowy leadership of that campaign played a big part in that success.
Marie Sherlock
Marie Sherlock’s success in getting elected to the Dáil denied Dublin criminal Gerard ‘the Monk’ Hutch a seat in Leinster House. The Labour Party politician was perhaps underestimated, not featuring too prominently in pre-election commentary on who might win seats in Dublin Central. But hard work in the constituency during her time as a senator appears to have paid off and her win at the expense of Hutch tops off what has been a good election for the Labour Party. Ivana Bacik can also be put in the winner category with her party expected to be back in the Dáil in increased numbers in her first general election as leader.
Fine Gael
There were blunders in Fine Gael’s campaign, including Taoiseach Simon Harris’s dismissive encounter with disabilities worker Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk. Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe may warrant an honorary mention in the winners category after he was put front and centre of his party’s campaign to steady the ship. The party may not have benefited from the ‘Harris hop’ that had been evident in the polls but it is set to grow its Dáil numbers and may well be back in Government Buildings after 14 years in power. That’s still a win even if it is not quite what was hoped for by Fine Gaelers.
Social Democrats and Holly Cairns
The Social Democrats have had a phenomenal election and also returns to the Dáil in increased numbers. It won seats in Cork East (Liam Quaide) and Dublin Bay South (Eoin Hayes), that were a surprise to many. To cap it off party leader Holly Cairns was quite handily re-elected in Cork South-West – overturning expectations that her seat could be vulnerable – and she gave birth to a baby girl on polling day.
The comeback kids
Thirteen years after losing his Dáil seat, former Green Party TD Paul Gogarty – perhaps most famous for his “f**k you deputy Stagg!” outburst – is back as an Independent in the Dublin Mid-West constituency. Ruth Coppinger of People Before Profit-Solidarity lost her seat in Dublin West in 2020 but has been re-elected on this occasion. Senator Malcolm Byrne was briefly a TD after winning the 2019 byelection in Wexford before losing the seat in the general election within months. He has been elected in the new Wicklow-Wexford constituency. Independent politician Seamus Healy won his seat back in Tipperary South. Former Fianna Fáil TD and MEP Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher was looking well-placed to take a seat in Donegal on Sunday night, as was former independent TD Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran in Longford-Westmeath. Fianna Fáil’s Timmy Dooley’s comeback to the Dáil marks a return to the Dáil after four years in the Seanad.
‘Project Fear’
Opposition politicians accused the Government of engaging in “Project Fear” over the economic headwinds that could be on the way with the incoming Trump administration in the United States and concerns over a trade war. The Taoiseach insisted it was “project truth”. Regardless, the electorate chose not to take any risks and to return a Dáil that is radically different from the last one which could arguably be seen as a win for Project Fear.
Losers
Sinn Féin
Sinn Féin will be relieved that it has held its own in terms of seat numbers in the election after a series of controversies in the build-up to the campaign. It made some key seat gains such as Ann Graves in Dublin Fingal East and Conor McGuinness in Waterford. It also lost TDs such as Chris Andrews and Martin Browne and former member Brian Stanley denied his old party a seat in Laois by winning back his seat as an Independent. Party leader Mary Lou McDonald had a good campaign personally, showing her easy rapport with the public while out canvassing. However, the party’s share of the vote has fallen by about five percentage points compared with its 2020 result. There is also no taking away from the fact that it is set to return to the Opposition benches in the next Dáil.
Green Party
The Greens have gone from an all-time high of winning 12 seats for the party in 2020 to being almost obliterated after a term in government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Party leader Roderic O’Gorman is now the only Green Party TD left in the Dáil. The Greens can point to several achievements in the last government, from driving the climate action agenda to reducing the costs of public transport and childcare for people. But the party once again now faces the difficult task of rebuilding as it had to do after losing all of its seats in 2011 in the wake of its first stint in government.
Ministerial losses
Obviously there were a string of Green ministers who lost seats – Catherine Martin and Ossian Smyth perhaps most prominent among them. Minister for health Stephen Donnelly was on Sunday night in the fight of his political life to keep his seat in Wicklow. His party colleague Anne Rabbitte lost her seat in Galway East. First elected in 2016, Rabbitte retained her seat in 2020 and was appointed as minister of State for disabilities, gaining a reputation for fighting her corner in advocating for more investment in the area.
Other incumbents who lost seats
People Before Profit’s Gino Kenny, an outspoken voice on topics such as assisted dying and the decriminalisation of drugs, is a big loss for his party in Dublin Mid-West. In Dublin Fingal East backbencher Alan Farrell, the chairman of the Fine Gael parliamentary party at the tail end of the last Dáil, has lost the Dáil seat he first won in 2011. Violet-Anne Wynne, the former Sinn Féin TD who sought re-election as an Independent in Clare lost out after securing just 310 first preference votes. Former Defence Forces officer, Kildare South Independent Cathal Berry lost his seat, as did Independent Matt Shanahan in Waterford. Right to Change TD Joan Collins lost her seat in Dublin South Central.
John McGahon
Fine Gael senator John McGahon looked unlikely to take a seat in Louth after his campaign was derailed by renewed coverage of a 2018 incident where he was involved in an altercation with another man, Breen White. Photographs of Mr White’s injuries were published in the Sunday Times and later a video of the incident was also published. Mr McGahon was found not guilty after a criminal assault trial but afterwards faced a civil action taken by Mr White. He had to pay damages to the other man involved after the jury in the civil case concluded that Mr McGahon was 65 per cent responsible for the assault. Fine Gael sought to defend his candidacy for the party, emphasising that he had been found not guilty in the civil case. As things stood on Sunday night, Mr McGahon’s running mate Paula Butterly was much better placed to take a seat than him. .
Anti-immigration candidates
Candidates that had immigration at the centre of their election platform fell flat around the country. Politicians such as Malachy Steenson and Gavin Pepper – who deny being far-right and won council seats when the topic of immigration was much more prominent in June – failed to get elected. An effort to maximise the chances of candidates with far-right views on immigration under the banner of the so-called National Alliance – was unsuccessful.
The unsuccessful comeback kids
Former Fine Gael TD Noel Rock returned to the political fray as he tried to win back the seat he lost in Dublin North-West in 2020. He was unsuccessful, as was former Fine Gael minister Alan Shatter, who contested the election as an Independent in Dublin Rathdown. Maverick Independents Clare Daly and Mick Wallace – who lost their European Parliament seats in June, failed in their attempts to return to the Dáil.
Celebrity candidates
Television star Gráinne Seoige failed to take a seat for Fianna Fáil in Galway West. Fellow former TV anchor Alison Comyn looked to be in a battle for the last seat in Louth as the count continued there. Fine Gael’s candidate in Kerry, former county footballer Billy O’Shea lost his party’s seat in Kerry late on Sunday night. And of course perhaps the most famous – or infamous – candidate of all, the aforementioned Gerard ‘the Monk’ Hutch, was unsuccessful in his bid to be elected.
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