Election 2024Analysis

Coalition dilemma: what is the price of power?

Which party really wants to be part of a FG-FF administration, scrambling for wins in government and facing a vengeful electorate in four or five years’ time?

Leader of the Labour Party Ivana Bacik: the party has a history of being willing to take on the challenges of office, even when the circumstances are daunting. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collin Photos
Leader of the Labour Party Ivana Bacik: the party has a history of being willing to take on the challenges of office, even when the circumstances are daunting. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collin Photos
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy Political Editor
Mon Dec 02 2024 - 06:00

Seats have yet to be filled and, as ever, it’s all about the numbers. Specifically, in this case, it’s about how close Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined will be to a Dáil majority of 88 seats.

At present, as the counts continue on Sunday evening, projections suggest a range between a combined total of 78 seats at the lower end, and 90 at the top end; the latter, of course, would mean an overall majority for the two big parties. But most expectations are that the FF-FG combination will come in somewhere short of a majority. Which means that help will be needed. If so, this is the question that will come to dominate politics in the coming weeks, up to the December 18th date when the new Dáil meets, and probably beyond: who will provide the help?

Sources familiar with the thinking of the decision-makers in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have a strong preference for coalition with Labour. That ardour might diminish somewhat if the two parties end up on the cusp of a majority, not least because of the price that would have to be paid in terms of ministers and junior ministers. But, senior figures in both parties suggest, there is still a strong rationale for seeking Labour’s support: it would add a left-wing, social democratic element to the government that might appeal to many voters; it would provide a political “mudguard” (they don’t quite put it like this, though that’s what they mean); and it would give the FF-FG government a hefty majority ahead of what could be turbulent economic times to come. Both Labour and the Social Democrats can expect invitations, even if there is little expectation in the big parties that the Soc Dems will be interested.

But are either Labour or the Social Democrats likely to take up the invitations?

READ MORE

Both have spoken extensively about wanting to be in government – something they are likely to be reminded of frequently in the week ahead. The Social Democrats have talked about their “red lines” – some of these are specific, like a Cabinet minister for disability, but others are not, like “genuinely affordable homes”.

But will they really want to be part of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil administration? Few in those parties expect so.

Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats, answering questions on the subject on Sunday evening, conveyed openness to the prospect of participating in government – but also several reasons, among them a “change in direction” on housing policy, which might make participation impossible.

For Labour, the memory of the political and electoral toll taken by its last term in government, during the years of austerity in the first half of the last decade, is fresh.

Labour has not yet embarked formally on the internal debate about government that is one of the many traditions of the party. Ivana Bacik’s promise to talk to like-minded parties of the centre left – ie, the Greens and the Social Democrats – is a useful place holder for now. But in reality, the conversations are under way.

Absolutely everyone is wary of the prospect of government. But there is a division between those who think the party should seriously explore the idea of joining the coalition and those who think it would condemn the party to an inevitable decimation at the next election.

Ivana Bacik speaks frequently of Labour as a “party of government” and the party has a history of being willing to take on the challenges of office, even when – as in 2011 – the circumstances are daunting. But many party sources fear that joining this emerging coalition would leave the party scrambling for wins in government and facing a vengeful electorate in four or five years’ time. Others question how much leverage they would have in government if a majority could be sustained without them.

Among many Independents, however, there is no such hesitation. They are already forming a not-all-that orderly queue for discussions about supporting a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael government. They could do this either as a coalition partner a la the “Independent Alliance” of Shane Ross et al from 2016-2020, or as external supporters, as several Independents, including Michael Lowry and Sean Canney, did for the outgoing government.

There will be a strong resistance to including Independents in government, not least because the parties will not want to give away Cabinet and junior ministerial jobs. Independents have only their own vote to trade and a minister’s job for one vote is a trade only a desperate would-be taoiseach makes (by way of example, see Enda Kenny, 2016).

The new Independent Ireland party – which could end up with four or five seats – has insisted it will have a party whip, and operate as a conventional party. Comments by its leading members over the weekend suggest it is keen for a deal. But there is scepticism within government about how reliable a partner it would be.

It is clear the next government will almost certainly be based around the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil alliance that is now one of the central facts of Irish politics. As of now, however, that’s about all that is clear.