Here are the six constituencies that tell the story of the 2024 general election.
Fianna Fáil: Carlow Kilkenny
It was a good weekend for Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, with his party taking the largest share of the national first preference vote at 21.9 per cent. On Sunday night, as the count played out in Carlow Kilkenny, the party had three candidates in the mix.
Fianna Fáil rebel John McGuinness was leading the pack, with Jennifer Murnane O’Connor and Peter “Chap” Cleere hot on his heels. While the constituency has always had a strong Fianna Fáil vote, the prospect of a third TD here was a slightly doubtful one, and while the final counts were still playing out last night, the strong performance of Peter ‘Chap’ Cleere in Kilkenny gave the party plenty to celebrate. Fianna Fáil also did better than expected in Dublin Bay North, after years of underperforming in the capital, with Tom Brabazon and Deirdre Heney polling better than expected. Furthermore, in multiple constituencies around the country Fianna Fáil was also proving quite transfer friendly, attracting transfers from Fine Gael, Aontú and Independents.
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Sinn Féin: Dublin Central
In the summer of July 2022, Sinn Féin peaked at 36 per cent in The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polling series. The continued rise of Sinn Féin appeared to be all but guaranteed, and on those numbers party leader Mary Lou McDonald would have fancied her chances of bringing in a running mate in her constituency of Dublin Central.
Fast forward to November 2024, and Sinn Féin instead have 19 per cent of the national first preference vote. In Dublin Central Mary Lou McDonald failed to cross the line on the first count with 6,389 votes (down from her 2020 first count take of 11,223) against a quota of 6,551. Her running mate, Councillor Janice Boylan, polled third from the bottom with 1,257 votes and was eliminated on the second count. It was a similar situation in constituencies like Tipperary South, Dublin Bay South, Cork East and Dublin Bay North where there were either seat losses or a noticeably reduced vote share, painting a picture of high ambitions not realised.
Labour: Fingal
The positive Labour performance can be seen in many constituencies – holding Brendan Howlin’s seat in Wexford, adding a marginal target in Kildare South through Mark Wall, or in Ivana Bacik comfortably holding on in the competitive Dublin Bay South race. The party will now have almost as many TDs in Dublin alone as it had in the entire country before the election.
However, the two Fingal constituencies point to the underlying strength that Labour now credibly argues is growing. In Fingal East Duncan Smith held on to a seat that many – in fact, almost everyone – was saying he would lose after the constituency redraw. Smith was a shining light in the 2020 performance, evidence that the party could blood new talent as it sought to rekindle its flame after being dismantled in the 2016 election.
Now he is a senior party figure, and in the neighbouring constituency the party can point to the success of Rob O’Donoghue, who was co-opted on to the council in Fingal in 2018 and went on to hold the seat in 2019 and top the poll in June’s local elections. At 43 O’Donoghue is in fact older than Smith (41) but between them they are part of a crop of talent that can form the core of something going forward, including Ciarán Ahern (Dublin South West), Marie Sherlock (Dublin Central) and Conor Sheehan (Limerick City).
Social Democrats: Cork East
The Social Democrats have exceeded all expectations at this election, even their own, and nowhere is this more clear than in the unlikely gains they have made in marginal target seats – or even seats they weren’t expected to feature in at all.
Eoin Hayes in Dublin Bay South is a good example, and while the likes of Liam Quaide in Cork East were fancied in the party and seen as potentially coming into the reckoning, the fact they’ve brought him home shows the strength of their vote. Ditto Sinéad Gibney in Dublin Rathdown, where she was expected to face an uphill struggle after so recently having a disappointing day in the European elections which saw her lose her deposit.
Rory Hearne holding on to Roísin Shortall’s Dublin North West seat without getting embroiled in a scrap also tells its own story. At the time of writing Pádraig Rice was very much in the mix in the competitive Cork South Central constituency. With Fianna Fáil nailed on for two seats here and there always likely to be a Fine Gael seat, Rice faced competition from strong Independents like Mick Finn, not to mention the fact that it was being targeted by Labour who liked Laura Harmon for a seat, and the Greens Monica Okieh.
Green Party: Dún Laoghaire
In Dún Laoghaire Green Party Minister of State Ossian Smyth was one of the few TDs in his party tipped to keep his seat, but in the end he was squeezed out in a picture which replicated across the country.
In Dublin Bay South the decision of former Green Party leader Eamon Ryan to stand down was always going to throw the race open, and ease the pressure on Labour’s Ivana Bacik and Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan. But the Green Party had high hopes that Hazel Chu would hold Ryan’s seat given the fact she has been a strong vote-getter in numerous local elections.
On the first count Chu had 3,250 votes. It became immediately clear that she had, at best, an outside shot at holding the seat. It was a situation that was mirrored around the country as numerous Green seats fell: Catherine Martin in Dublin Rathdown, Malcolm Noonan in Carlow Kilkenny, Joe O’Brien in Dublin Fingal West, Patrick Costello in Dublin South Central, Francis Noel Duffy in Dublin Southwest, Neasa Hourigan in Dublin Central, Brian Leddin in Limerick City and Marc Ó Cathasaigh in Waterford. There was just one bright spark last night when Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman scraped in to hold his seat.
Fine Gael: Dublin Bay South
Fine Gael mounted an ambitious campaign in the election, fielding three candidates in plenty of constituencies around the country as the race for the office of Taoiseach opened up. But the party had a difficult election campaign with a series of missteps which saw Fine Gael lose its lead in the final week. The question will be asked: did the stuttering campaign cost the party second seats in some constituencies? In Dublin Bay South, Fine Gael’s James Geoghegan topped the poll and secured 10,650 votes but his running mate Emma Blain fell behind and was excluded on the eighth count.
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