Election 2024

Analysis: How do you herd the Independents into a government formation deal?

Should Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael come calling, there’s no shortage of Independents ready to offer a deal for their support for a new government

Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran: returns to the Dáil as an Independent TD after winning a seat in Longford-Westmeath. Photograph: Tom Honan for The Irish Times.
Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran: returns to the Dáil as an Independent TD after winning a seat in Longford-Westmeath. Photograph: Tom Honan for The Irish Times.
Cormac McQuinn's picture
Cormac McQuinn
Tue Dec 03 2024 - 06:00

There is no shortage of Independent TDs open to talks on backing a new government should parties like Labour and the Social Democrats not be willing to strike a deal with likely coalition partners Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

But which of them is best-placed to do a deal and will efforts to get Independents on board be akin to herding cats?

The last Dáil had the eight-strong Regional Independent Group which was formed to maximise their speaking time and allow them pose questions to the taoiseach on a regular basis.

Some of its members often voted with the government in crunch Dáil votes, bolstering its, at times, wafer-thin majority.

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The re-elected members of the group are Tipperary North’s Michael Lowry, Galway East’s Seán Canney, Noel Grealish of Galway West and Wexford’s Verona Murphy.

Moves are already afoot to form a similar group for the next Dáil but just because such a group is formed does not mean they would all back a new government in Dáil votes.

Mr Lowry, Mr Grealish, Mr Canney and Ms Murphy have all expressed an openness to talks about possible support for a new government. But this would come with conditions that may or may not be agreed to by the big parties.

Should Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael come calling, this is a cohort of experienced TDs that could offer solid support, perhaps from outside the government benches.

Mr Canney was previously a junior minister as a member of the Independent Alliance in the Fine Gael-led minority government that left office in 2020.

So too was Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran who will make a return to the Dáil after winning a seat in Longford-Westmeath.

Dublin Bay North’s newly elected Barry Heneghan is an ally of another former Independent Alliance minister Finian McGrath.

Mr Heneghan said he will not make any quick decisions in relation to any potential deal with an incoming government but that he is “open minded” and wants “the best” for his constituency.

Kerry Independents Michael and Danny Healy-Rae have both said they would be open to talks but would want investment in their home county. Michael said the priorities are “Kerry, Kerry and Kerry”. Any such deal would not be unprecedented. Their father, Jackie, famously did a deal with former Fianna Fáil taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

Independent Ireland, a party made of former Independents, argue that the kinds of key demands it has around improving infrastructure in the regions and providing supports for business are national rather than parochial issues.

But would a party that is made up of former Independents reliably back the government when it comes to difficult decisions? Newly elected Cork North-Central TD Ken O’Flynn insists ‘yes’ is the answer, saying they would “put on the green geansaí and make the right decisions that are beneficial for people’s lives”.

There’s a way to go until the support of Independents might be sought. But there are several happy to pick up the phone if Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael call.

The cats are herdable if needs be.