There is broad agreement among voters in Northern Ireland and in the Republic that east-west links between Ireland the UK should continue even if the North votes to join a united Ireland in any future referendum.
Asked whether the principal east-west institution of the Belfast Agreement, the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIC), should continue if there are votes for unity, clear majorities in North and South, and in Northern Ireland among both Catholics and Protestant, are in favour of maintaining it.
In a research project that often reports stark differences between voters in the North and South, there is remarkable agreement on the desirability of maintaining the east-west link after potential unity.
More than six in 10 voters in the Republic (61 per cent) say that the intergovernmental conference should continue in the event of Irish unification, while 65 per cent in the North agree.
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Only slightly more voters from a Protestant background than from a Catholic background – 66 per cent among Protestants against 62 per cent of Catholics – want the conference to continue in the event of unity, indicating that, in this instance at least, there is a sense among pro-unity voters that some links with Britain may be desirable after unity.
The intergovernmental conference was established by the Belfast Agreement and has met seven times since 2020.
The findings are part of the North and South research project for which two simultaneous opinion polls have been conducted each year for the past three years. Each poll was conducted by Ipsos – Ipsos Northern Ireland in the North and Ipsos B&A in the South – and surveyed more than 1,000 voters at multiple points across both jurisdictions.
In addition this year, two deliberative forums have been held, one in each jurisdiction, in order to allow selected participants to discuss the constitutional issue and related questions in a structured setting. The surveys and deliberative forums took place in the second half of 2024.
The North and South project is a collaboration between The Irish Times and the ARINS Project. ARINS – Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South – is itself a joint project of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame in the United States.
The ARINS/Irish Times project aims to provide independent and unbiased information on the state of public opinion in both jurisdictions on the constitutional future of the island, on what influences the views of people, how they might change in the future and what a united Ireland – if it were ever to happen – might look like.
Last week, The Irish Times reported the first findings of this year’s surveys, which found that while Northern Ireland would vote decisively against joining a united Ireland, the margin between the pro-unity and pro-UK sides has declined sharply in the last three years.
Why is support for reunification rising?
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