The State could face financial penalties totalling as much as €28 billion for failing to sufficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, experts say.
Latest projections show Ireland is further away than ever to reaching climate targets. Under EU agreements, countries that fail to meet their obligation to cut emissions in half by 2030 will have to purchase carbon credits from other countries who have exceeded their targets.
A joint report last month from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council, both of which were set up to advise the Government, warned that Ireland could have to pay between €8 billion and €26 billion purchasing carbon credits from other countries on current projections.
However, yesterday’s report from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) showed that Ireland’s progress towards the goal of reducing emissions by half is slowing. It will now only achieve reductions of 23 per cent in a best-case scenario.
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It is likely that more carbon credits will have to be purchased at a potential additional cost of almost €2 billion, experts estimate.
The total bill could be as high as €27.9 billion, according to initial calculations supplied by climate experts to Oisín Coghlan, policy adviser to the Stop Climate Chaos coalition.
“Today’s EPA figures could add as much as the cost of another children’s hospital to the billions in fines we are facing for not doing enough to hit our 2030 targets,” Mr Coghlan said, referring to the National Children’s Hospital, which has soared to a cost of more than €2.2 billion.
“But this would be a complete waste of money. The real message here is that we can save billions of euro by investing more now in public transport, warmer homes and clean energy rather than more fossil fuels.
“But it requires political leadership because there is short-term inconvenience on the road to a better quality of life all round. Micheál Martin has repeatedly said climate change is the defining challenge of our generation. Now, as Taoiseach, it’s time to show he can rise to it.”
Climate experts say a recalculation of emissions from the agricultural sector seemed to have improved the Irish position, though the overall picture still shows Ireland facing massive costs for failing to meet emissions targets.
The Department of Finance confirmed the Government may decide to purchase carbon credits from other countries, but said no decision had yet been made.
“In a scenario where targets aren’t achieved, then consideration could be given to using various flexibilities available to member states, one of which is purchasing surpluses from other member states,” the department said in response to questions.
The department said it was “important to realise that if the EU as a whole does not meet compliance with its 2030 targets, then it may not be possible to purchase compliance at any price as there will be no surplus to purchase”.
It added: “This is one of the key reasons as to why there is significant uncertainty in relation to any potential cost projections.”
The department said work was under way by the Department of Environment to consider what credible options would be available to Ireland in order to meet compliance, if necessary.
In response to questions, the Department of the Environment and Climate said: “The Government remains committed to complying with our domestic and EU emissions reduction targets through investing in climate action at home, and by driving forward implementation of the Climate Action Plan.
“We will continue to explore all compliance options available under the relevant EU legislation.”
