MEP Seán Kelly bowed to the inevitable on Monday as it became clear he would not reach the magic number of 20 supporters among Fine Gael’s national politicians to enter the internal party contest to become a presidential election candidate
Former minister Heather Humphreys is set to be confirmed as Fine Gael’s candidate on Tuesday after winning support from more than 40 TDs, senators and MEPs, leaving Mr Kelly’s presidential ambitions dashed.
The situation is not yet so clear in Fianna Fáil.
Former Dublin GAA football manager Jim Gavin has 23 public declarations of support, including the backing of Taoiseach Micheál Martin and the party’s five other senior ministers.
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Ireland South MEP Billy Kelleher, a highly experienced politician, is slower off the mark with four confirmed backers including himself, fellow MEP Barry Andrews, TD Pádraig O’Sullivan and Senator Paul Daly.
However, Fianna Fáil’s presidential hopefuls need just five nominations to enter the internal battle to become the party’s candidate.
Mr Kelleher’s supporters believe he will reach this threshold and prove competitive when it comes to the secret ballot scheduled for a week’s time.
[ Presidential election: Jim O’Callaghan backs Jim Gavin to be Fianna Fáil candidate ]
That’s because with 43 undeclared TDs, senators and MEPs – and much lobbying planned over the coming days until nominations close on Friday – it is still all to play for.
Mr Andrews said the significant numbers of undeclared – more than half of Fianna Fáil’s 71-strong parliamentary party – was “encouraging for Billy” and “there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge” before the close of nominations on Friday and the vote on Tuesday next week.
Mr O’Sullivan, meanwhile, suggested some people who had made declarations could change their minds and he insisted “we are in this to win it”.
There is, of course, no doubting the clear momentum for Mr Gavin who, aside from his high-profile GAA role, is also a former Air Corps pilot and works as a senior executive at the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA).
Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan and Minister of State Charlie McConalogue became the latest Fianna Fáil heavy hitters to back him on Monday and he does have the publicly declared support of more than a quarter of the parliamentary party.
Twelve of the 23 in Mr Gavin’s camp are Dublin representatives, and this is perhaps to be expected given his credentials as a hugely successful, multi All-Ireland winning manager.
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There is still space for Mr Kelleher to find support among the 43 undeclared politicians, many of whom represent areas that might not be as pleased by Dublin victories.
As for Mr Kelleher, he played down any potential tensions between himself and Mr Martin over the Taoiseach’s backing of Mr Gavin.
He told Cork’s 96FM on Monday the Taoiseach has “responsibilities to the party” and “has to make decisions in what he thinks is the best interest in the party, and I have to make decisions on what I believe I can offer as a candidate”.
He said he intended to travel the country over the coming days to speak to the party’s TDs, senators and MEPs.
His task will be to persuade colleagues to back him over the leadership’s preferred candidate.
Meanwhile, there is a glimmer of hope – though little more than that – for former taoiseach Bertie Ahern, who has at least one backer in Fianna Fáil’s parliamentary party in the form of Senator Niall Blaney.
Should Mr Ahern seek to enter the race he has Mr Blaney’s support given his role as an architect of the Belfast Agreement.
Mr Gavin has a clear lead as Fianna Fáil’s selection process ramps up, but the outcome is likely to remain unpredictable until the result of the secret ballot is in.
