Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin, Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys and the unified left wing parties’ Catherine Connolly will be the only candidates to contest the 2025 presidential election, the smallest field to compete for the Áras in 35 years.
As the close of nominations passed at noon on Wednesday, the independent conservative Maria Steen narrowly missed out on a place on the ballot paper by just two signatures.
Ms Steen ran an intensive last minute campaign and managed to secure the backing of 18 TDs and Senators, but did not manage to meet the threshold of 20. That meant that all of the candidates for the October 24th poll will have the backing of major political parties.
Next month’s election will be the first time since 1997 that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have competed for the presidency.
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In Fine Gael, there is a quiet hope that Heather Humphreys could present the party with its first real chance to win the national office. Fine Gael has never held the presidency, and has been blighted by a history of underwhelming campaigns.
Ms Humphreys’ strengths will be her connection with rural Ireland and her seasoned political experience. But with over a decade of experience at the Cabinet table, her opposition will likely use her time as a minister as a way to try to tie her to Government failings, including the housing crisis.
She has already been criticised for her role in a controversial plan to change social welfare payments for disabled people, and her time as director of elections for the disastrous family and care referendums last year, both of which may make her vulnerable.
Her campaign will rely on her warmth and interpersonal skills, with Fine Gael keen to stress how her background as a border county Protestant would qualify her to be a president who champions unity and reconciliation.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil’s Jim Gavin is the only candidate in this year’s election who does not come from a political background. He is lionised in Dublin for his successful stewardship of the capital’s football team, and Fianna Fáil is confident this will give him a head start.
Mr Gavin’s candidacy will focus on national service, drawing on his experience in the Defence Forces and his record in community campaigns in Dublin.
In an unpredictable presidential election, his perspective on the Triple Lock will likely be seized on by Catherine Connolly’s campaign, which has already started to frame her as the “pro-neutrality” candidate. Mr Gavin suffered an early misstep when he referenced the “military objectives” of Israel while discussing the genocide in Gaza.
Largely untested as a media performer, despite his high profile GAA role, the challenge for Mr Gavin will be in connecting with a national audience. He has also had to come out publicly to challenge social networks for being slow to regulate and remove an online rumour network, which he said was upsetting his family. But despite the difficulty in dealing with the malicious online campaign, Mr Gavin’s interview on RTÉ’s Six One News this week was a humanising one.
Catherine Connolly already has over eight weeks of national campaigning behind her, having been the first candidate to emerge this summer. Ms Connolly this week secured the important backing of Sinn Féin, which has given her campaign the prestige of being the first to unite the left from People Before Profit to Mary Lou McDonald’s party.
Ms Connolly’s effective social media campaign is helping frame her bid for the Áras as a grassroots movement. But she has been criticised for unconvincing media performances, and a perception that she evades or demurs against questions she does not like. Her utterances on Hamas this week were problematic, and forced her left-wing colleagues to defend her.
She has also been weak on a united Ireland, which may hamper her ability to get Sinn Féin voters to come out for her on October 24th. Her record on human rights and in particular on Gaza, will be one of her greatest strengths.
