Jim Gavin’s shock withdrawal from the presidential election on Sunday night will have two immediate effects.
First, it completely recasts the contest as a two-horse race between left-wing Independent Catherine Connolly and the Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys.
The presumed shape of the race – that Humphreys and Gavin would compete with one another and then transfer to the highest-placed candidate – has been upended. It is hard to think of a greater shock in any presidential election.
An opinion poll in the Sunday Independent showed Connolly with a clear lead on 32 per cent, with Humphreys following on 23 per cent and Gavin trailing at 15 per cent. Counting second preferences, Connolly is in an extremely strong position. After an elimination of Gavin, and excluding don’t knows, Connolly is projected to win by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
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But these are tight numbers and anyway, the early polls in presidential elections are not the most reliable predictors of where things will end up – ask former unsuccessful candidates David Norris or Adi Roche.
Humphreys is clearly in a stronger position than Connolly to attract Gavin’s support. But her campaign has been stuttering and tentative so far.
[ Jim Gavin withdraws from presidential electionOpens in new window ]
We can expect a big outreach to Fianna Fáil voters from her in coming days, though data from the Sunday Independent poll suggests a quarter of Gavin’s second preferences would go to Connolly.
It is a subtle art for Fine Gael candidates to seek Fianna Fáil votes – and vice versa – though hardly an impossible one.
The presidential election may provide further evidence that the two old parties, while intent on maintaining their separate identities and whose competition remains as fierce as ever, are essentially two wings of the same political force.
Whether that force is strong enough right now to win a presidential election looks doubtful, though these are early days in a campaign that will really only firm up after the budget.
For now, the shock withdrawal of Gavin is likely to have the initial effect anyway of strengthening Connolly’s lead.
The second thing that has already begun as a result of Gavin’s announcement is the fallout for Micheál Martin.
Gavin was very much Martin’s project, pushed through a somewhat reluctant parliamentary party and foisted on an organisation that was a little nonplussed but willing to go with their leader’s judgment.
That judgment has now been found to be lacking. He can’t avoid the inevitable political consequences of this – significant damage to his authority within the parliamentary party and a blow to his standing with the public.
Gavin’s withdrawal from the contest came after revelations that he had not repaid money allegedly owed to a former tenant of an apartment he once owned.
This is the sort of thing that could have been expected to come up in any reasonably competent vetting process. Questions will be asked in Fianna Fáil about why it didn’t.
[ Five takeaways from Sunday’s presidential debateOpens in new window ]
It followed a series of gaffes on the campaign trail this past week that already had TDs wondering about the management of the campaign. Inevitably, there will be some sort of reckoning for this.
Martin has wrestled with his frequently restive political party on several occasions before. On every occasion, he has come out on top. His judgment has been repeatedly vindicated. He has led the party back from the brink of extinction to leading the Government. And although the mini-industry of speculation about internal challenges to Martin has experienced period booms, betting on Martin to win has always been the one that paid out.
But sooner or later, his leadership will end, in one way or another. Under the Coalition agreement, the leader of Fianna Fáil will be the Taoiseach until November 2027. That’s more than two years away. And it suddenly seems like a long way off.
Few Fianna Fáil TDs expect Martin to lead them into the next general election, which – in the way of these things – means that a slow motion contest to succeed him is already under way. It has probably now accelerated a little.
The departure of Gavin tells us one more thing about politics: how tough it is.
Gavin was brought in because he was a non-politician, someone who could reach out to parts of the public that a conventional Fianna Fáil politician couldn’t reach. He is someone with an impressive record of achievement and public service.
But the fierce glare of public and media scrutiny proved too much. People who think anyone could be a politician should reflect on Gavin’s demise and consider whether that’s really true.
