The decision of Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin to withdraw from the presidential election race has significant implications not only for Fianna Fáil and its leader, Micheál Martin, but also for the future of these electoral contests.
The potential impact on the election result is not yet clear, and the polling conducted to date will have to be discarded.
Analysts are debating what the typical Fianna Fáil voter is likely to do and what this all means for the left-right political divide.
“This is good news for Catherine Connolly,” said Eoin O’Malley, associate professor in political science at Dublin City University, of the Independent TD and left-wing candidate, one of only two now running for the Áras.
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“It is likely to further suppress the vote on the Government side. More Fianna Fáil people are likely to stay at home, there will be fewer votes going around – and [that will] ultimately make it harder for Heather Humphreys to win.”
Aidan Regan, professor of political economy at University College Dublin, agreed that Connolly has been boosted by Gavin’s decision. He said the Fianna Fáil vote could easily splinter in a number of ways.
“Looking at the core of the Fianna Fáil base, some may get out to vote for Heather Humphreys – but some might choose to go with who they see as the more republican candidate [Connolly], some will stay at home and some will spoil their vote. So yes, I think it does benefit Catherine Connolly.
“It now becomes the establishment against the anti-establishment,” said Gary Murphy, professor of politics at DCU. “The focus will become even more intense on both of them”.
Murphy said he was still to be convinced that Gavin’s withdrawal is better for Connolly than Humphreys; he says many Fianna Fáil people could still come out to vote.
However, what does seem clear is that Martin is entering a dangerous period of his leadership.
“The reality is that these contests have become a brutal political battle – and he [Jim Gavin] wasn’t prepared for it. It reflects poor judgment on the part of the leader and deputy leader,” he said, referring to Martin and Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers.
“You need someone serious and with a long track record in political life. They just picked a novice.
“For Micheál Martin, I’m not sure it is quite the beginning of the end – but all it takes is one person in the Cabinet, like he did himself with Brian Cowen, to say this is not good enough”.
Calamity for Fianna Fáil as Jim Gavin drops out of the presidential race
Regan says Martin’s leadership has an “autocratic” element and many within the party will want to “put manners on him”.
“I suspect a lot of people in Fianna Fáil will want him to publicly acknowledge that it was a mistake. Maybe it is time to show a little bit of humility – and many people within the party will appreciate that humility,” he said.
O’Malley believes little will happen in the coming days – due to the budget – but stirrings from Fianna Fáil backbenchers are likely to mean its leader will soon hear “things being said that he hasn’t heard before”.
Insiders say many people within the party have become frustrated with a “mission creep” that has seen increasingly centralised decision-making by the leadership.
They point to the 29 parliamentary party votes garnered by MEP Billy Kelleher in the selection contest to pick the party’s presidential candidate as the first time this disgruntlement was able to be heard due to it being a secret ballot.
The significance of this campaign goes far beyond this election and Martin’s leadership woes, according to public affairs consultant Gerard Howlin.
“Catherine Connolly’s candidacy started out as an attempt to align the left – and over the past three weeks that has really solidified,” he said.
“A united-left alliance is now a reality. With the debacle over speaking time in the Dáil – and now this – I think the Government has managed to lend considerable help to the formation of the identity of an alternative government”.
“Sinn Féin now has an each-way bet in the next general election,” said Howlin.
“In option A, they have a fairly united left alliance that can be depended on to hold together.
“And option B – in the event that Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael don’t have the numbers – and the united-left alliance also doesn’t have the numbers – Sinn Féin could perhaps, with Fianna Fáil under a new leader, have an alliance with them”.
Gavin’s disastrous candidacy may encourage the mainstream parties to stay away from presidential elections in the future, said O’Malley.
“The parties might withdraw a little bit more. We might go back to 2011 and 2017 – when we had more Independent candidates. People will also start preparing to run for the election much earlier – not just three weeks beforehand,” he said.
The dust would have to settle first, said Gail McElroy, professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin. This is a time, however, when many people will reassess the nature of the electoral process.
“We need to ask ourselves questions about the unrealistic expectations we have about a largely ceremonial role,” she said, “ ... the idea that candidates need to be paragons of virtue. Who hasn’t made a mistake in their past?”
Having seen what has happened, not only in this contest but in previous ones, she said “many good, eligible people will not put themselves forward”.
The lesson, she believed, was that the main parties will have to avoid “celebrity” candidates in the future and go for seasoned politicians whose “skeletons are out of the closet”.
On turnout, there seems to be general consensus among political observers that Gavin’s departure from the race, if not the ballot paper, will probably deal another blow.
“I think turnout was always going to be low – but even lower now,” said O’Malley.
“I imagine it could be below 40 per cent this time – but it’s hard to tell. All depends on whether Humphreys comes out fighting – and really takes on Connolly, whether she pushes for a new vision for the presidency and not just Michael D Higgins ‘part two’.”
Regan agreed.
“You already had up to 15 per cent of voters whose politics are farther to the right than those of Jim Gavin and Heather Humphreys and who felt they didn’t have someone to vote for,” he said.
“Now we have a cohort of Fianna Fáil voters who will spoil their vote or stay at home.”
