Catherine Connolly holds a commanding lead in the presidential election with just over a week to go before votes are cast, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.
The poll finds that Ms Connolly, on 38 per cent, has almost double the support of her nearest rival, Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys, on 20 per cent. Support for the Fianna Fáil candidate, Jim Gavin, who stopped his presidential campaign last week but is still on the ballot paper, is at just 5 per cent.
While the number of “don’t knows” remains relatively high, at 18 per cent, the poll suggests that if the election was held immediately, Ms Connolly would win on the first count.
[ Analysis: Only an earthquake can deny Connolly victory based on this pollOpens in new window ]
The findings of the poll are as follows: Catherine Connolly, 38 per cent; Heather Humphreys, 20 per cent; Jim Gavin, 5 per cent; will not vote, 12 per cent; will spoil vote, 6 per cent; undecided, 18 per cent.
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POLL: Catherine Connolly opens huge lead
When those who said they don’t know, or who will not vote or who said they intend to spoil their vote are excluded, the numbers are as follows: Catherine Connolly, 60 per cent; Heather Humphreys, 32 per cent; Jim Gavin, 8 per cent.
Ms Humphreys has not benefited as well from the halt to Mr Gavin’s campaign as Fine Gael might have hoped.
Asked where their second preferences will go, Mr Gavin’s voters split roughly evenly between Ms Connolly and Ms Humphreys. Among Mr Gavin’s voters before he ceased his campaign, Ms Humphreys fares slightly better, but not well enough to alter the balance of the race.
When voters were asked who they intended to vote for before Mr Gavin’s withdrawal, 35 per cent went for Ms Connolly, 17 per cent for Ms Humphreys and 11 per cent for Mr Gavin.
The poll also contains evidence of voter disillusionment with the slate of candidates offered to them. Almost half of voters (49 per cent) said they “don’t feel represented by any of the candidates”; 40 per cent disagreed.
More than half (55 per cent) said the Constitution should be changed to make it easier to run for the presidency, with just over a third (34 per cent) disagreeing.
A clear majority of voters who expressed a view on the issue said conservative campaigner Maria Steen – who tried and failed narrowly to secure entry to the race through nominations by Oireachtas members – should have been in the contest. Asked if she should have been facilitated, 45 per cent agreed, 24 per cent disagreed and 31 per cent had no opinion.
An overwhelming majority said Mr Gavin was right to withdraw from the race (67 per cent), against just 17 per cent who believed he should have stayed in. Fianna Fáil voters are no different from the electorate as a whole on the question; 68 per cent of them believe he was right to quit.
When voters were asked the most important quality in a candidate, two qualities came far ahead of the others: “someone who will play an active role and speak out on issues” (39 per cent) and “someone who will do a good job representing the country abroad” (33 per cent).
These rank far ahead of “someone whose political views I agree with” (9 per cent); “someone who is endorsed by the party I support (1 per cent); “someone who will be a safe pair of hands” (10 per cent); and “someone who speaks Irish” (3 per cent).
Taken together, Thursday’s numbers suggest Ms Connolly is firmly on track to be Ireland’s next president.
While presidential elections have sometimes seen dramatic late swings in support, it would take an enormous change in the mood and momentum of the campaign for Ms Connolly to be denied victory at this stage.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies.
Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A series is conducted through face-to-face sampling. Personal in-home interviewing took place on October 12th, 13th and 14th. There were 1,200 interviews conducted. The accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
