As the presidential election shapes up to deliver significant political blows to the two Government parties, the public’s reaction to the Coalition’s first budget will offer Ministers little consolation.
Voters believe last week’s budget will not help them, and only a quarter say it struck the right balance between investment and prudence. There is a constituency for prudence, but it is a minority.
If voters judge budgets principally through the prism of their own finances and economic circumstances, then the Government parties can expect no repeat of the favourable reception of recent giveaway budgets.
More than two thirds of voters (68 per cent) agreed they are “disappointed that the budget did nothing for people like me”, while less than a quarter (23 per cent) disagreed with that statement.
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An even bigger group of voters (79 per cent) said the budget will not “improve my household’s financial situation”, with just 13 per cent believing their situation will be improved.
Asked if the budget “struck the right balance between investment and prudent control of spending”, just a quarter of all voters (25 per cent) agreed, while more than half (54 per cent) disagreed.
However, there was significant approval for the balance between spending and prudence in the budget among Fianna Fáil voters (50 per cent) and Fine Gael voters (45 per cent).
There is also a sign of a constituency (albeit a minority one) for budgetary restraint when voters are reminded of the threats to the Irish and international economy.
When asked if, “given the unsettled international situation and the threat of US tariffs”, they would have liked a more cautious budget, nearly four in 10 voters (39 per cent) agreed, with a similar proportion (40 per cent) disagreeing. A fifth (21 per cent) of voters said they were undecided on the question.
There is better news for the Government on issues related to foreign policy and international affairs. On two issues that the Government will bring to the Dáil in the coming weeks – the Occupied Territories Bill and the triple lock – there is some encouragement for Ministers.
The Government proposes to amend the triple lock – the requirement for Cabinet approval, a Dáil vote and UN authorisation for deploying troops abroad – through legislation to be brought to the Oireachtas in this term. Opposition parties and pro-neutrality campaigners are fiercely opposed to the move, but the Government says it will push ahead.
Support for keeping the triple lock has dropped since the public’s view was last measured in April. While a majority of those who express an opinion still said they want to keep it (40 per cent), that figure has dropped by seven percentage points. While the proportion of voters who want to remove the triple lock (34 per cent) has also dropped (by three points), the net position is more favourable to the Government than it was.
Voters’ views on the Occupied Territories Bill, which would ban the import of goods produced in the Palestinian territories occupied by Israel (in the West Bank and East Jerusalem), have changed little since earlier this year.
The Government is committed to bringing forward the legislation before Christmas but must decide whether it will follow the recommendation of the Oireachtas foreign affairs committee – and many pro-Palestine campaigners, and the Opposition – and amend the Bill to include services under its remit, a development that would greatly broaden its scope.
Publicly, the Government is undecided and is awaiting the advice of the Attorney General. This week, however, Taoiseach Micheál Martin suggested such a move was not going to happen.
His caution is reflected by the voters. Almost half say that the Government should either not pass the Bill (10 per cent) or investigate the consequences for Ireland before passing it (38 per cent).
One tenth of respondents said they want to see the Bill include services and passed quickly, while 22 per cent said it should be passed quickly as it is (ie without services). A fifth of voters (20 per cent) gave no opinion.
The Government will still come under political pressure in Leinster House to move quickly and to include services in the Bill. The Dáil devotes a lot of time to the discussion of Palestine and the Israeli assaults on Gaza. The public, however, seems to take a view that accounts for Ireland’s interests as well.
