Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll reveals a drop in support for Fianna Fáil, down five percentage points to 17 per cent. The gamble on Jim Gavin has not paid off.
Some of the party’s voters appear to have drifted across to Sinn Féin, which is up five points to 27 per cent. Fine Gael records a modest increase in support, up one point to 18 per cent.
Support for the Labour Party has also increased, up two points to 6 per cent. The Social Democrats slip one point, to 5 per cent, while the Green Party remains on 3 per cent. Aontú is also at 3 per cent, while People Before Profit is at 2 per cent. Independent Ireland, included as a separate entity for the first time in The Irish Times/Ipsos series, is on 2 per cent. Support for Independents and other smaller parties is at 17 per cent.
Interviewing for this poll took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week, across all constituencies and counties in the State. In total, 1,200 interviews were conducted in-home by trained and experienced Ipsos B&A interviewers.
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The presidential race and recent budget form the backdrop to today’s poll.
Some criticisms have been levied at the Government for not using the budget to give back to ordinary taxpayers, choosing instead to lessen the burden of the hospitality and housing sectors. Also not reflecting positively on the Government parties is the withdrawal of one of their presidential candidates and the lacklustre performance of the other.
Government satisfaction registers at 31 per cent in today’s poll, a five-point decline since July and the lowest level recorded since the new Government took office almost a year ago.
Against this background, it is not surprising that support for Fianna Fáil has dropped. Declines are evident across almost all demographics, with the largest of these among voters in the farming community (down 14 points to 26 per cent) and among those aged 65 or over (down 13 points to 26 per cent).
On 18 per cent, Fine Gael is now polling significantly behind last year’s high of 27 per cent which came on the back of a change in party leadership. This is the fourth consecutive poll whereby support for the party has registered in the late teens. The party has clearly not benefited from Heather Humphreys’s presidential candidacy or campaign. Support for Fine Gael is highest within the farming community (29 per cent).
A significant gap has now opened up between Sinn Féin and the Government parties. A gain of five points to 27 per cent puts Sinn Féin 10 points clear of Fianna Fáil and nine points ahead of Fine Gael. Backing Catherine Connolly, who looks like a winner at this stage, seems like the right choice.
Sinn Féin’s support has grown across almost all demographic groups, but the party continues to garner its greatest support from the under 25s (on 42 per cent) and from working-class voters (on 36 per cent).
Satisfaction with Taoiseach Micheál Martin has also taken a significant hit in today’s poll, down 11 points to 33 per cent: a heavy blow considering his rating has not dipped below 40 per cent since October 2020. Still, the majority of Fianna Fáil voters (75 per cent) are satisfied with their party leader’s performance and they are strongly of the opinion (79 per cent agree) that he should not resign over the selection of Gavin to run for the Áras.
Satisfaction with Tánaiste and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris is at 35 per cent, his lowest rating recorded since tracking began in May 2024. Still, he manages to pip Martin on this occasion.
Reflecting party support trends, Mary Lou McDonald attracts the highest leader satisfaction rating at 39 per cent, up three points.
It has not been a good few weeks for the Government. Somewhat hidden in today’s poll is a new historic low; combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael adds up to just 35 per cent.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have together dominated Irish politics for almost a century. Now, with barely more than one in three voters opting for either party, at a time of plenty, some soul-searching may be needed.
