Opposition to the European Union’s controversial Mercosur trade deal is believed to be waning as a crunch vote to approve the agreement approaches.
The Government, which has committed to oppose the deal due to concerns it could hurt beef farmers, is weighing up what way to vote should it become apparent the trade pact is likely to pass.
The Mercosur agreement, negotiated by the European Commission, the EU’s powerful executive arm that leads trade policy, would lower barriers to goods being sold between European states and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
Under the agreement some 99,000 tonnes of beef could be exported to the EU from the South American countries each year.
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Irish beef farmers fear this may lead to cheaper South American meat undercutting demand for exports of Irish steaks and burgers elsewhere in Europe.
The Government is likely to come under political pressure from Sinn Féin, Independent rural TDs, the Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) and other farming groups to vote against the trade deal.
The Mercosur agreement needs the support of a weighted majority of EU states to be approved, as well as a simple majority of MEPs in the European Parliament.
[ ‘No guarantee’ Mercosur trade deal can be stopped, says HeydonOpens in new window ]
Officials representing each of the union’s 27 national governments in Brussels are scheduled to vote on the proposed deal in December.
One diplomatic source in Brussels involved in the negotiations said momentum to approve the deal was picking up pace, with previous opposition from several capitals wavering.
The commission has been involved in lengthy discussions with France, one of the main opponents of the deal, to try to bring French president Emmanuel Macron around to possibly backing the accord.
Senior officials in the commission believe there will be sufficient support to get the Mercosur deal over the line in the upcoming December vote.
It is understood European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen would then travel to Brazil on December 19th or 20th, to sign the approved agreement on behalf of the EU.
The European Parliament, which has become more fractious and divided since elections last year, would still need to ratify the deal.
Poland, Ireland and other opponents of the deal would need to be joined by France and Italy to muster enough votes to block it.
Government sources are growing less confident about the prospects of putting together a big enough “blocking minority” to reject the trade pact.
The coalition deal agreed by Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and several Independents committed the Government to working with like-minded EU states “to stand up for Irish farmers and defend our interests in opposing the current Mercosur trade deal”.
German chancellor Friedrich Merz is pushing for the agreement to be passed, as it will open up large new markets for carmakers and other German export industries.
A previous version of the deal negotiated in 2019 failed to win enough support inside the 27-state bloc, but there was a fresh push to try again after Donald Trump’s election as US president.
A Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade spokeswoman said Ireland had asked for the revised deal - shared by the commission this September - to address concerns about climate damage and deforestation in South America, and to protect Irish farm incomes.
“The Government is carefully assessing the EU-Mercosur package in its entirety to understand if our concerns with the agreement have been adequately addressed,” the spokeswoman said.
The commission has privately argued that instability in Europe’s relationship with the US and Mr Trump’s one-sided tariffs on transatlantic trade mean the EU had to deepen its economic ties to other parts of the world.
The EU executive body has assured farmers the deal includes an emergency brake that could be triggered if a flood of cheap South American beef, or other products, starts to distort the European market.
[ Ratifying the Mercosur deal is a no-brainerOpens in new window ]
