Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance as Zelenskiy receives warm welcome in Dublin

Country’s president knows EU and its member states still command some sway in Washington

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Dáil chamber after delivering his speech in a joint sitting of the Dáil and Seanad in Dublin on Tuesday. Photograph: Tony Maxwells/Pool/AFP via Getty
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Dáil chamber after delivering his speech in a joint sitting of the Dáil and Seanad in Dublin on Tuesday. Photograph: Tony Maxwells/Pool/AFP via Getty

At a crucial moment for his country, Volodymyr Zelenskiy chose to come to Dublin.

He arrived as a peace deal that may decide the future of his country is wrangled over in Moscow, Washington, Kyiv and Brussels.

He thanked the Irish Government and people for “not losing faith in us” and for helping out tens of thousands of his countrymen.

But he also appealed for help to achieve “real peace”.

“Real peace” for Ukraine means not just a ceasefire that halts the fighting but a settlement that ensures Ukraine will have the capacity and assistance – from Nato, the US and the EU – to build up its military defences so Russia will not dare resume hostilities after a pause.

Real peace may involve recognising the brutal reality that the parts of Ukraine conquered by Russia are unlikely to be reconquered by Ukraine in the near future, however unjust that may be.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy with President Catherine Connolly and his wife, Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska, at Áras an Uachtaráin on Tuesday. Photograph: Alan Betson
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy with President Catherine Connolly and his wife, Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska, at Áras an Uachtaráin on Tuesday. Photograph: Alan Betson

But it is unlikely to mean giving up to Russia parts of Ukraine, including strategically vital parts of the northeast, that Russia has been unable to take by force since February 2022.

It seems clear the Trump administration isn’t too picky about what the elements of any peace deal are. Zelenskiy and the Ukrainians, unsurprisingly, are. If they are going to give up part of their country, they want to be sure that the rest of the country is safe – or as safe as any neighbour of Putin’s Russia can be – for the future.

“Ukraine,” Zelenskiy told the Dáil, “is closer to peace than ever before ... There is a real chance.”

But there is also a chance of a monumental betrayal of Ukraine by the West – by a United States happy to settle for an agreement giving the aggressor Putin what he wants and by a European Union unable to decide who should pay, and how, for the defence of Ukraine, even as its leaders declare Ukraine’s fight to be Europe’s.

The EU has been trying to stiffen its resolve. Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned on Monday that Russia “does not want peace”, while in the background officials have been working intensively to overcome objections to a plan to use seized Russian assets as a loan to buy arms for Ukraine.

Zelenskiy was in Paris on Monday before his trip to Dublin. He knows he cannot rely on Trump. But he knows that the EU and its member states still command some sway in Washington.

Perhaps Putin knows it too. As Zelenskiy was receiving the plaudits of Dublin, Putin was warning that he was ready to go to war with Europe immediately, if Europe sought to start one. He objects to Europe interjecting itself into the peace talks between the US and Russia.

This threatening vista, with the fate of his country in the balance, was the background to warm scenes that greeted Zelenskiy in Dublin.

Zelenskiy is applauded by members of the Oireachtas in the Dáil on Tuesday. Photograph: Maxwells
Zelenskiy is applauded by members of the Oireachtas in the Dáil on Tuesday. Photograph: Maxwells

In his address to the Dáil and Seanad, he said Ireland was “a country that understand the price of freedom ... that shares our belief that every voice counts and every nation matters”. He urged Ireland to use its voice to advocate for peace and for justice.

With the departure of the US as a reliable guarantor of European security, including Ukraine’s, Zelenskiy knows his country’s future comes down to Europe’s willingness not just to intercede with the US, but to stand up on its own behalf.

Perhaps that is why he came to Ireland, a country led by one of his staunchest backers in the EU, but also one that is closest of all the EU members to the US.

“Europe cannot run away from its own values,” he told the Dáil.

“It must stand up for them ... We need real peace. Help us to achieve it.”