Ireland’s opposition to the Mercosur trade deal could be contingent on whether it has enough allies to form a “blocking minority” to reject the agreement, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris has suggested.
Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, Mr Harris said the Government was “taking stock” of the positions of other EU states, ahead of a key EU vote to approve or reject the deal in coming days.
Asked whether Ireland would still vote to against the deal if it looked certain to be approved, the Fine Gael leader said he had never been interested in “performative politics”.
“I think the key question in the here and now is, does a blocking minority still exist? And I think the jury is a little out on that,” he said.
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“So what I’ve consistently said to farmers is that we’d work with like-minded countries, and we have been working with like-minded countries,” he said.
“You hear different things as to different member states that may be supporting the deal, may not be supporting the deal. The most important thing here is that we establish those facts in the first instance,” he said.
“These are judgment calls that have to be made if a blocking minority doesn’t exist. Ireland has expressed concerns in relation Mercosur,” Mr Harris said.
It comes as Taoiseach Micheál Martin was due to speak with Independents supporting the Government as tensions rise ahead of an EU vote on the EU-South America Mercosur trade deal.
A vote on the deal is expected in the coming days, with Independents outlining their expectation that the Coalition adhere to Programme for Government commitments on Mercosur.
Irish farmers’ groups say the deal would damage Irish and European agriculture, principally the beef sector, arguing lower standards in South America would hurt Irish food producers.
On Thursday, Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon said that he has “grave concerns” about the deal.
However, the European Commission wants Ireland and other sceptics to vote for the deal, which can only be defeated by a “blocking minority” of EU countries at EU council level. This must be composed of at least four member states representing 35 per cent of the EU population.
Large countries like France and Italy are known to harbour concerns about the deal as well, but opposition to the deal from France, Italy and Austria is believed to be waning, which would close off any prospects of Ireland and others forming a blocking minority to kill the deal.
The European Commission, the EU’s powerful executive that negotiated the trade deal, is confident it has sufficient support among national capitals to back the agreement.
Voting against the big trade accord would likely harm Ireland’s standing in Brussels.
Mr Martin is understood to have metIndependent Minister Michael Healy-Rae and his brother Danny on Wednesday evening as part of ongoing talks, at which the two Kerry TDs are said to have emphasised to the Taoiseach that the Programme for Government must be followed through on.
The Taoiseach is due to hold further talks with Independent TDs supporting the Government at lunchtime, it is understood.
The Programme for Government commits the Coalition to “work with like-minded EU countries to stand up for Irish farmers and defend our interests in opposing the current Mercosur trade deal”.
Mr Heydon said he had “grave concerns” about the impact the Mercosur deal might have on Irish farmers.
“I’m holding true to the Programme for Government commitment of working with like-minded countries who share those concerns,” he said in Brussels on Thursday. “I don’t know if there remains enough countries for a blocking minority,” he said.
Mr Heydon said he expected Cabinet would discuss what way Ireland would vote. A vote had been expected on Friday but there is speculation now that it could be delayed.
A Government source said the situation was “really tense and tight” and that the decision would be “massively emotive” for the farming sector amid fears that if Ireland backed the decision “there’ll be 10,000 tractors in [Dublin] city centre”.
The deal would lower barriers to trade between the EU and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. It needs to be signed off by a weighted majority of the EU’s 27 member states, with Ireland, Poland, Austria and France among those who have voiced concerns about the agreement in the past.
Under the agreement some 99,000 tonnes of beef could be sold into the EU from the South American countries each year.
The commission has sought to provide extra assurances to governments under political pressure from powerful farming lobbies.
An “emergency brake” clause would allow the EU to reimpose steep import duties on beef coming from Mercosur countries, in the event it is found to be flooding any part of the European market and causing a drop in prices.
The Southern Common Market (Mercosur for its Spanish initials) was initially established by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, and was later joined by Venezuela and Bolivia.
