Fianna Fáil unrest
The temperature in Fianna Fáil has dropped a bit since before Christmas but the future of party leader Micheál Martin will continue to be discussed. The reaction of some backbenchers to the Mercosur trade deal last week shows they are of a mind to assert themselves, while Mr Martin’s more dedicated opponents will miss no opportunity to chip away at his leadership.
The question for Martin is whether he can rebuild his authority in the coming months. Whether he likes it or not, the party’s performance in the polls will have some bearing on that, and the history of Fianna Fáil is that it tends to lose support when the party is at war with itself. While the drastic step of a motion of no-confidence – which requires the signature of 12 TDs – seems unlikely without some further controversy, the nature of politics is that some further controversy is always possible.
The left alliance
Left-wing parties came together to support Catherine Connolly’s candidacy in the presidential election last year and stormed to a famous victory. The outcome led to repeated calls for more co-operation on the left with the aim of ousting both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael from Government at the next general election and replacing them with a coalition of the left.
It will be interesting to see if the left-wing parties can step up their co-operation over the coming months, not just inside the Dáil, but also outside it. The smaller parties will be wary of being squeezed by Sinn Féin, and there is an understandable fear that the bigger party will target their seats. Co-operation is hard in a multiparty system that rewards distinctiveness. Still, the momentum is with them.
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Byelections
One of the important tests for co-operation on the left will be the two byelections in Dublin Central and Galway West, which are expected to take place in May. If they are challenging for the left, they will be even more so for the Coalition parties. There is little optimism in either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil about winning the seats, and already some fears about the political consequences of poor performances.
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Although the Dáil arithmetic means that the byelections will not endanger the Government’s majority, the political effects of them are often magnified. Unexpectedly bad results could spell internal party troubles for either of the Coalition leaders.
Difficult legislation
The Government faced criticism last year for a skimpy legislative programme that meant few Bills of substance were brought before the Dáil. The coming months will see several contentious Bills – including legislation on immigration and the triple lock as well as on legal and planning reforms and critical infrastructure – brought to the Oireachtas.
The Government will also have to decide what to do about the Occupied Territories Bill. Opposition parties and pro-Palestinian campaigners want the Bill to include a ban on trade in services as well as goods, but there seems little appetite in Government for that, or indeed for the Bill at all.
St Patrick’s Day
Taoiseach Micheál Martin faces his second trip to the Oval Office to meet US president Donald Trump in March at a time of deep uncertainty in the relationship between the US administration and the European Union. Whatever about dodging questions about Venezuela, it’s hard to see how EU leaders would not regard any US action against Greenland as a red line that would alter the transatlantic relationship.
As US hostility towards the EU becomes more apparent, can Martin maintain the levity and chumminess that – despite prior fears on the Irish side – marked the Oval Office meeting and other related St Patrick’s Day events last year? And even if he can – should he? What would the Republic’s EU partners make of it? Choosing between the US and EU is a nightmare for any Irish government. But the prospect looks more imminent than ever.
Infrastructure and Housing
The Government made several changes to housing policy last year in an attempt to stimulate supply. We will see some of that taking effect in the coming months, as some small landlords exit the market to avoid the new tenancy rules coming in at the start of March. This will mean a glut of lease terminations in the coming weeks – but could also mean an increase in properties available to buy. Changes to planning and tax rules are intended to stimulate apartment building; if that’s going to work, there should be signs of it in the first half of the year.
The Government has also pledged action to accelerate the delivery of infrastructure – these are monitored by an external group, so we will be able to see before long if the pace of delivery is sufficient to make a difference. A new critical infrastructure Bill, including emergency powers for the Government to push through vital projects, is due by the end of the first quarter. On housing and infrastructure, the Government will soon run out of places to hide.
