Good morning,
There is some relief this morning for Taoiseach Micheál Martin in our first Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll. Indications are that Martin, having endured a torrid three months after the presidential election and his party’s fiasco of a campaign, has found the floor of that crisis. With the party up two points (to 19 per cent) and his personal popularity recovering somewhat (up four points to 37 per cent), he will be particularly buoyed by continuing popularity among Fianna Fáil voters, 79 per cent of whom want him to stay.
The electorate overall is decidedly cooler – a large minority (43 per cent) want him to step down, but defending his popularity among his party’s own voters is the first order of business. He weathered the surge in disappointment and anger among his parliamentary party, which is likely to have left permanent damage – but if his enemies within were hoping for another reason to come for him, this polling won’t hand it to them. He has shown that amid political controversy, staying alive, letting things play out and trying to gradually relieve pressure can be a path through it.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves: this is a case of some repairs being done, but hardly a complete fix. He leads an unpopular government (30 per cent, the lowest for a government since the dog days of Leo Varadkar’s first administration). The one-point decline in popularity could be worse, given the absence of universal income supports over a long winter, but it is hardly a ringing endorsement – especially when you consider the overall health of the economy and jobs market, despite ongoing woes in housing and the cost of living. Support for the two Civil War parties among the 18-34 age bracket is a dismal 26 per cent. The Coalition is lucky, overall, that the opposition doesn’t seem able to build decisive momentum – yet, anyway.
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Political editor Pat Leahy’s page-one story on the polling is here.
And his analysis is here.
Ipsos/B&A pollster Damian Loscher runs the rule over the results for the Opposition.
Starmer struggles
Across the Irish Sea, British prime minister Keir Starmer gives a portrait of a leader in dire straits. The Labour leader seems unable to stop the bleeding in the wake of revelations over his former US ambassador Peter Mandelson’s relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
London Correspondent Mark Paul writes here on peril for Starmer and his top aide, Cork’s Morgan McSweeney.
The prime minister seems unable to muster the confidence of his party in Westminster or to map a way through the crisis and beyond. That leaves him firmly in the danger zone, and may fatally impair his leadership.
Weather warnings
No end in sight for the rain – nor the associated political cost, as the worst of it seems set to come down over the next 36 hours. Here’s the state of play on the weather front this morning.
Best reads
Elsewhere on the front page, Ellen Coyne writes on the Government’s guarded and incremental approach to a social media ban for the under-16s.
In the opinion pages, Lorcan Sirr argues that new rent rules will make the market even more dysfunctional.
Seanín Graham reports on President Catherine Connolly’s trip to the North (featuring, naturally, at least one display of sporting derring-do – a successfully executed backwards basketball shot).
It was songs and stories from the TDs for retiring usher Mick O’Brien in the Dáil chamber yesterday. Here’s Miriam Lord’s piece.
The good humour didn’t last, with exchanges over the future of Bord Bia chair Larry Murrin.
The Wednesday edition of Inside Politics, on the Triple Lock, is here.
It’s Six Nations time. A clunky Thursday evening kick-off notwithstanding, this is always welcome news. Ireland take on France in Saint-Denis this evening. Here’s Gerry Thornley’s preview of what may be a “bare-knuckle ride”.
Playbook
Oral questions for Dara Calleary open the day’s proceedings in the Dáil, followed by Leaders’ Questions, Other Members’ Questions and Questions on Policy or Legislation all before lunch.
Statements on road safety come the day after the Coalition signalled new reforms on scrambler use. The aforementioned rental legislation continues its way through the Dáil in the afternoon, before an opposition motion on the cost of living and topical issues round out the day.
Here’s the full schedule.
The Seanad sits from 2pm, with Government Business covering statements on inland and marine fisheries, before motions on data sharing between EU and Switzerland of passenger name records in the evening.
Find the full schedule here.
In the committee rooms, Barnardos and others are at the children’s committee to talk about online safety.
The Public Accounts Committee has its weekly meeting, with officials in from the Department of Agriculture. The main draw will be in committee room two at 12.30pm, where the aforementioned Larry Murrin is in front of TDs and Senators.
Here’s the full schedule.
President Catherine Connolly continues her visit to Northern Ireland with engagements in Derry.
People Before Profit are launching an “Affordable Ireland Campaign” at 12.30pm outside the Dáil on Kildare Street.
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