Good morning,
Earlier this year, there was a bright spot for the Coalition when housing completion figures for 2025 came in at 36,284 – a 20.4 per cent increase on 2024’s disappointment.
When the stats came out, Government insiders positively fizzed with pleasure. Nowhere near where it needed to be, but the builders were also making positive noises about measures taken to usher institutional capital back into the sector.
It suggested the Government could, for now at least, remain in the fight on the most pressing crisis it faced.
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The commentary in the ESRI’s quarterly economic outlook, published yesterday, is a reality check for the Coalition on housing. While the headlines were given over to the grim outlook for inflation, the think tank’s verdict on housing is pessimistic.
Projecting completions in the mid-30,000s for this year and next, it outlines that the figures “remain below the level needed to begin bridging the gap between fundamental housing demand and supply”.
What’s more, the ESRI argued that the wave of inflationary pressure hitting the economy will also hit housing. “Recent energy price spikes could act to put downward pressure on housing output,” it wrote, saying a 1 per cent permanent increase in building costs could lead to a 0.84 per cent reduction in home completions three quarters after the shock.
Both housing starts and planning permissions remain below “what would be anticipated as on-trajectory towards 50,000” – the figure needed to hit overall Government targets for its term.
Meanwhile, if the 2022 inflation shock is anything to go by, increases in materials costs will also impact affordability, it found.
All told, the projections suggest that as the Coalition heads to its halfway point next year, inflation could copperfasten a situation where housing remains below target levels and is too expensive.
Unwelcome news for everyone – and toxic for the Government.
Growing population, more TDs?
Elsewhere, Michael McDowell had a motion in the Seanad last night arguing that the constitutional requirement for one TD for every 20,000-30,000 of the population should be scrapped in favour of a specified number of TDs.
McDowell argues that after the next census in 2027, there could be up to 185 TDs – and march ever upwards thereafter if population continues to grow. He conjures the vision of millions being spent expanding the footprint of the Dáil, pointing to the difficulties of building a bike shed on the Leinster House campus, never mind a bigger chamber.
What could be the outcome of such a move? Certainly an ever-expanding Dáil could prove increasingly unwieldy, and it would probably put paid to any notion of six-seat constituencies. Would this have an impact on smaller parties breaking through? What about government formation? And is there an argument that we could end up in a situation where people are underrepresented if the ratio of voters to TDs climbed?
Thankfully, the pointy heads at An Coimisún Toghcháin have put the item on their research agenda, with preliminary scoping work under way in its research agenda.
Best reads
A nation holds its breath – “a nation can hope”. The big match takes its rightful place on the front of today’s paper, with Jack Power’s report from Prague.
The gap emerges as the Easter Rising beckons – Miriam Lord reports from Leinster House as it prepares to wind down for a couple of weeks.
Here’s the Early Edition podcast.
While we’re at it, here’s Wednesday’s Inside Politics podcast on Ireland’s falling status in Europe.
Maybe it’s not all doom and gloom on housing, according to Daft.ie.
A super Sunday lunch that’s a steal: Corrina Hardgrave reviews Richmond in Dublin 2.
More World Cup playoff fare, you say? Oh, go on then:
Passion, composure – and Troy Parrott – needed for this one
Ken Early: Ireland may want to avoid penalties in the home of Antonín Panenka
Ireland’s history of World Cup playoffs, from joy in Iran to that handball
Playbook
Dara Calleary and Helen McEntee are taking oral questions in the Dáil in the morning, followed by Simon Harris taking Leaders’ Questions.
In the afternoon, Government Business is given over to statements on development at the site of the Bessborough Mother and Baby Home, before topical issues, and legislation from Labour’s Duncan Smith allowing for paid leave to enable employees participate in health-screening programmes and extend protection against unfair dismissals.
The full schedule is here.
In the Seanad, legislation on assisted decision making is being considered in the morning, while laws enabling the temporary reduction in the Nora levy are going through in the afternoon.
Here’s the full schedule.
Over in the committee rooms, the Public Accounts Committee continues its examination of the Inland Fisheries Ireland saga. That’s at 9.30am. At the higher education committee at the same time, former UK ambassador Paul Johnston is attending in his new role as director general of the Irish Universities Association.
The full schedule is here.
