Five things to watch out for as the Dáil returns after the summer break:
1. The Apple Money
One of the first items on the Dáil agenda on Wednesday is this: “Statements on the CJEU [Court of Justice of the European Union] Judgment in the Apple State aid case.” The judgment doesn’t matter. It’s all about the money. Expect to see a lot of auction politics on how the €13 billion windfall from the Apple case will be spent, although it’s not actually being added to the State’s coffers until March 2025.
Already Sinn Féin plans to allot €1 billion to disadvantaged communities that have lost out during the austerity years. Expect more of the same from the other parties in Opposition. And also from the Government.
Minister for Finance Jack Chambers said the Coalition would give an indication of how the money should be spent around Budget time. The signals coming from that side suggest it wants to pour it into housing and water infrastructure, but be sure that it will be spread wider than that.
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2. Watch for a flotilla of kites
It’s less than a fortnight to the Budget, the earliest ever. The only reason the Government departed from the usual date of the second week of October is to allow itself room to call an early election, if it wants to. Budget 2025 will feature an €8.3 billion package, with €1.4 billion allocated to taxation measures.
There’s also a cost-of-living package on top of it. This is becoming a permanent feature on the landscape, using the corporation tax billions to give the political equivalent of “there’s one for everyone in the audience”. Already Jack Chambers is saying the average worker will be €1,000 better off. There’s money being poured into childcare and into child benefits. Expect to see most of the budget revealed over the next week.
[ US, not Ireland, facilitated Apple’s €13bn tax-avoidance structureOpens in new window ]
The Opposition parties will be active too with their alternative Budgets. The most eagerly anticipated will be Sinn Féin’s. It has already committed an extra €700 million to childcare so how it balances its books will be interesting to see. Apple money will feature in all of the above, have no doubt about it.
3. What else to expect in the Dáil
It has been such a wonderful week weather wise and the political leaders who visited the National Ploughing Championship in Ratheniska yesterday were at their sunniest. Don’t expect that to last too long. There is an election in the offing and the stakes could not be higher. Every party has a lot to lose and a lot to win.
So expect to see some very flinty exchanges in Leaders' Questions between Government and Opposition, with each trying to carve out their distinctive attributes while dismissing the politics of their opponents.
[ Dáil returns but maybe not for long as evidence points to November electionOpens in new window ]
There is also going to be a rush of legislation. The Government needs to get through at least half a dozen key Bills, not counting the Finance Bill and the Social Welfare Bill, before this Dáil comes to an end. They include Planning Bill; the Gambling Bill and a Justice Bill. It’s also moving the Mental Health Bill and the Defamation Bill in the Oireachtas this week. They are all substantial pieces of legislation. You can expect guillotines galore if all that legislation is to be signed into law.
4. The Bicycle Shed has been a stick in the spokes for Government spending
Nothing angers the public more than a wanton waste of public money by politicians and by Government departments and agencies. And nothing provides a better example of that than the bike shed at Leinster House that cost a whopping €335,000, the cost of a good house in most parts of the country.
The OPW has been under the cosh because of it. It pleaded that because of the historic nature of Leinster House, and its protected status, it needed to use the best of materials. But that Taj Mahal splendour cuts no ice with the public, nor with the opposition.
[ Why did the Leinster House bike shed cost so much and what happens next?Opens in new window ]
Profligate spending of other people’s money has been a feature of the State organisations for many years – anybody who follows the weekly meetings of the Public Accounts Committee will know all about it. This is not the only example of the OPW paying way over the odds for projects – it is embroiled in a similar row where it is spending €70 million to build a children’s museum for a private charity because it signed a binding agreement with it 20 years ago.
The HSE has been another spendthrift. The Irish Times is reporting today that the HSE has been spending more than €60 million a year on private management consultants, some of which had continuous contracts for four and five years.
Multiples of millions of euro have been spent, for example, on the Dublin Metro over two decades, even though not a sod is likely to be turned for at least another decade.
And of course there’s the national children’s hospital, the overall cost of which is now creeping closer to €3 billion than €2 billion, making it one of the most expensive hospitals built in the history of the planet.
5. And an election?
One thing is certain. This autumn session of the Dáil will be the last before a general election. The uncertainty is the date. Will it be November? Or February?
The smart and not-so-smart money is saying November but the three Government leaders keep on coming with the mantra that the Government will go full-term.
Full-term means until December no matter which way the dice roll.
At the Fianna Fáil think-in on Monday, Micheál Martin confirmed there would be no by-elections for the four vacancies in the Dáil, caused by TDs getting elected to the European Parliament.
A writ for a by-election has to be moved within six months of the person resigning their seat, or the seat becoming vacant.
That means the writ needs to be moved by January 16th at the latest. You can take it from that even if the Government waits until after Christmas, the Dáil won’t be coming back in the new year.
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