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Snapshot analysis: Budget and State spending take focus away from social issues

Respondents reveal a greater concentration on the value for money of Government expenditure than on topics such as the housing shortage and immigration

Damian Loscher
Tue Oct 29 2024 - 06:00

If the goal of Budget 2025 was to distract voters from the challenges of housing and immigration, it succeeded. Budget/Spending, making up 19 per cent of mentions, top the latest Snapshot poll for The Irish Times.

Sentiment towards this year’s “giveaway” budget is somewhat mixed, with 45 per cent of Budget/Spending mentions categorised as positive and 53 per cent as negative.

Readers should note that when budget measures that relate directly to an area of policy (such as increases in allowances and benefits) were mentioned, these were included under the relevant policy heading and not under the Budget/Spending heading.

In terms of what respondents liked about the budget, being in a position to be so lavish was taken as a clear sign the country is prospering – “such a large surplus, country seems to be moving in the right direction”.

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Criticisms made of the budget tended to focus on groups for whom maybe not enough was done, including those living in rural Ireland, the elderly, young people, young families, carers, working people and children with special needs.

There was also some doubt expressed about the Government’s ability to get value for money, with the Leinster House bike shed, its security hut and the new national children’s hospital cited as examples of how public money is being “squandered”.

A handful of Snapshot respondents deemed the budget “too generous”.

The topic of Social Policy is also a climber in this October wave of Snapshot, up six points to 11 per cent, peaking among 35-44 year olds (15 per cent) and females (14 per cent).

Contributing to the increase in Social Policy mentions are the various parent-focused payments and initiatives contained within the budget – “they’ve made a big impact on childcare fees: the NCS [National Childcare Scheme] especially has made a big dent on our monthly bills. The country is heading in the right direction.”

A rise in the State pension was noticed and largely welcomed. Changes to social welfare payments were greeted with less enthusiasm, with most comments expressing some unease at the possibility the Government is making welfare more attractive than work – “unemployed people are getting more support than those that are employed”.

The budget was such a high-profile event this time around that Housing only achieved 12 per cent of first mentions, down six points and its lowest ranking since Snapshot polling began last summer. That said, the age cohort most affected by house prices and rents (25-34 year olds) are still far more preoccupied with Housing (24 per cent of mentions) than any other issue.

Immigration has occupied the top spot in five out of the 10 Snapshot polls conducted this year, but has fallen this wave to fourth on the list, on 8 per cent (down four points).

Creating a small storm this month is the purchase of pouches in which to store mobile phones during the school day. The theme of Education accounts for 8 per cent of Snapshot verbatims (up five points) on the back of respondents rejecting this pouch idea, mainly because it was not deemed a good use of public funds – “I think that they’ve spent €9 million for phone pouches in schools, and I think they could’ve used that money for far better purposes”.

[ Norma Foley’s pouch plan acknowledges that phones cause harm. It may yet see her end up in history books ]

Phone pouches are especially triggering for 15-24 year olds, with 18 per cent of this cohort voicing their disapproval.

In overall terms, this October Snapshot is a mix of celebration (at some of the budget items) and concern (that money is being wasted or that worthy causes are not being prioritised). How a party plans to spend money may be more important to voters in the upcoming election than how it plans to make money. We have been here before.

Each Irish Times/Ipsos B&A Snapshot poll is conducted among a national sample of 1,000 Irish adults aged 15 years and upwards. Poll respondents are asked what they had seen or heard from Government recently that suggested the country is going in the right or wrong direction, with all comments recorded verbatim and allocated at analysis stage to answer categories.