There is no doubt the world is getting warmer; some climate scientists fear the global average temperature rise will exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times by 2050. If current policies remain in place this could mean an average rise of 4 degrees by 2100.
The impact on Ireland of these higher temperatures will be devastating – and some of their effects are already being felt.
According to Dr Barry O’Dwyer, associate director in sustainable futures with KPMG, Ireland has experienced significant changes in climate conditions as a result of human-induced global warming.
“These changes are being reflected in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events,” he says.
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For example, a recent study of the October 2023 flooding of Midleton, Co Cork, showed that the likelihood of such an extreme rainfall event had more than doubled as a result of climate change, while the intensity of the rainfall associated with it had been increased by around 13 per cent by climate change.
In a 2 and 3-degree warmer world, O’Dwyer says, climate projections for Ireland indicate a further increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall.
“This will result in increased flash flooding across the country while cities, towns and villages situated on rivers will be at increased risk of riverine flooding,” he says. “In contrast, projections of rainfall also indicate an increase in the frequency of drought conditions, which will put further pressure on Ireland’s water resources and exacerbate existing water supply issues.”
As an island whose big urban centres are located on coasts and estuaries, O’Dwyer notes that Ireland is particularly exposed to flooding as a result of sea level rises.
The scale of these losses highlights the pressing need for an intensification of adaptation efforts
— Dr Barry O’Dwyer, KPMG
“A sea level rise of 50cm and 60cm is projected for Ireland under a global warming level of 2 degrees and three degrees respectively,” he says. “In addition to resulting in the permanent inundation of low-lying coastal areas, this increase in sea levels will amplify the impacts of coastal storms, with areas that are already prone to flooding at increased risk while areas not currently considered at risk will be in the future.”
At these warmer temperatures, marine heatwaves such as those experienced in Ireland last year will occur more frequently, says O’Dwyer.
“Marine heatwaves can disrupt the fishing industry by affecting fish stock, while negative impacts on coastal ecosystems can have detrimental impacts on the aesthetics of coastal areas, which can deter tourists,” he adds.
The personal impact of this for many people will be enormous, as will the wider economic effects.
“A recent study suggests that by the end of the century the economic costs of climate change impacts for Ireland range from a GDP loss of €31 billion in a Paris-aligned, below-2-degree world to €130 billion in a world with global temperature of greater than 4 degrees,” says O’Dwyer.
“The scale of these losses highlights the pressing need for an intensification of adaptation efforts.”
Peter Thorne, professor in climate change at Maynooth University and director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units (Icarus), says it seems “almost certain” that in the coming years we will exceed 1.5 degrees of warming.
“This should be seen as a reason to redouble our efforts to reach net zero global emissions and stop further warming,” says Thorne. “Put bluntly, warming of 1.5 degrees will be bad, warming of 2 degrees will be really, really bad and warming of 3 degrees would be catastrophically bad globally.
“We are already starting to see events that would have been impossible in the world of the 19th century – before we started large-scale emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.”
Thorne also notes how the catastrophic Midleton floods were clearly linked to climate change.
“We are already experiencing the impacts of climate change on our shores and these will get worse the more we warm the climate, as Ireland’s first climate change assessment released earlier this year made abundantly clear,” he says. “Halting warming will not mean these extremes go away but it will stop them getting worse.”
He stresses that we have the technologies and tools to achieve this, adding: “We can stop contributing to making the problem worse and play our part.”
According to Darren Clarke, professor in climate and environmental change at Dublin City University, the impact of climate change on Ireland has already become apparent, even at just 1.2 degrees warmer than pre-industrial average temperatures. He says that in a 2-to-3 degrees hotter world, Ireland can expect to have much warmer and drier summers.
“This matters because drier and warmer summers have major implications for agriculture,” he says. “For example, animals could become heat stressed, crops could fail and we’re likely to see more invasive species and pests that farmers haven’t had to deal with yet.”
Winters will likely be warmer and wetter too, Clarke warns.
“Climate change increases the risk of flooding, like we’ve seen at the tail end of last year in places like Midleton, Rosslare, Louth and Clontarf,” he says. “We can expect more extreme rainfall events in the future so we need to prepare communities for adapting to climate risks that they haven’t experienced until now.
“This will be challenging, as some of the responses to climate change could require relocation from places that are deemed too unsafe in the long term.”