Perhaps the most tangible benefit of US president Donald Trump’s visit to Ireland in September was his announcement in Doonbeg Golf Resort of a decision to abolish tariffs on Irish whiskey.
That this sudden policy change was influenced, at least in part, by a word in his ear at the resort by Irish Open winner Shane Lowry, is a reflection of the turbulent and rapidly changing nature of international trading environments and how they can be influenced in great part by the economic and foreign policy whims of the leader of the United States.
Businesses tend to like certainty, especially those dealing with the challenges of navigating overseas markets. But many of them have had to deal with changing tariff rules, geopolitical crises and rising global energy costs in recent years.
Aebhric McGibney, director of public and international affairs with Dublin Chamber, says the impact of global trade tensions extends well beyond Ireland’s big exporters. Dublin Chamber research in Q2 2025 found that 81 per cent of businesses in the region expected to be affected to some degree by escalating international trade disputes, while more recent findings from Q1 2026 show that global trade and geopolitical instability is now the second most significant challenge facing Dublin firms, he points out.
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“What we are hearing from businesses is that uncertainty itself has a cost, making investment decisions more difficult, creating supply chain concerns and weighing on confidence, even where firms are not directly exposed to tariffs. Some businesses are responding by exploring new markets and export opportunities and looking at ways to strengthen supply-chain resilience.”
One company that found itself hugely exposed to changing tariff rules was start-up Emerald Ice Cream, cofounded by Eoin Kennedy and Janet Miley.
Buoyed by the success of Irish dairy, its 2025 launch centred on the US market where it has secured listings in several hundred stores. “In our business plan we looked at the rates and duties applying to dairy in the lead-up to our launch,” says Kennedy.
“On the week of our launch, the US administration launched reciprocal tariffs, and we were hit with an additional 10 per cent going on top of an already high rate. The first thing that we did was reach out to the organisations in Ireland that could help us, such as Enterprise Ireland and Bord Bia. We got great support. It was daunting at the start as we were bootstrapping a business, and this wasn’t going to help us.”
During the following months, additional tariffs went through a see-saw of changes. As a nimble start-up it was possible to micromanage the impact of these changes Kennedy says, with constant contact with customs brokers, for example, as the product transitioned from Ireland to the US. Eyes were always on the big prize, but the roller-coaster experience has been a challenge, he says, compounded by significant increases in container price due to rising global energy costs.
The larger and more complex the business, the bigger the challenges. Biosynth, a producer of critical raw materials for the pharmaceutical and diagnostics industries, employs just under 10 per cent of its global workforce in Ireland. It is part of a wider organisation with manufacturing plants in 10 locations worldwide.
“When the new tariffs were introduced, we had to consider the impact for our products that were made in China and imported into the US and what the impact would be on the products we manufacture in the US going into China,” explains Philip Noone, executive vice-president of diagnostics.
The response was to set up an internal “war office” group drawn from a cross-section of senior leaders in diverse positions across the group. In the end, Trump backed down on the proposed new tariffs for China but not before considerable work had been put in to model how the organisation would react.
“We’ve kept that war office open if that issue jumps up again and we’re also aware that we are in a hotspot being in the pharma biotech industry with so many leading companies manufacturing here.”
The significant increase in US tariff rates, from an average of 3 per cent pre-2025 to a minimum 15 per cent baseline on the majority of EU goods, has had a significant impact on Ireland’s export volumes. Irish goods exports to the US plunged 72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026 and 82 per cent in March 2026, partly reflecting the unwinding of 2025’s pre-tariff stockpiling, says John O’Loughlin, partner, global trade & customs, PwC Ireland.
“The biggest impact has been uncertainty, making it difficult for firms to plan P&L [profit and loss], cash flow, pricing and competitiveness. Pharma, Ireland’s dominant export sector, faces the threat of up to 100 per cent tariffs, while SMEs, already resource-stretched, lack the in-house teams to navigate this complexity,” he notes.
Diversification remains a key strategy for Irish exporters looking to sustain and grow their business in this challenging trade environment, he adds. However, add to that the higher energy costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East, and the headache compounds.
“The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade drove a sharp oil price spike in early 2026, with bunker fuel costs nearly doubling on some shipping routes, fuel costs per container rising from $155 to $269 on the newest vessels and from $360 to $626 on older ships,” McLoughlin adds. “Surging fuel prices place increased strain on the Irish export market, with higher transport costs leading to potentially higher export prices, reduced competitiveness compared with local producers and margin pressure.”
Increased tariffs don’t just affect companies doing business with the US. Tariff increases by the EU this year are affecting steel reinforcement manufacturer Midland Steel, which supplies the construction industry in Ireland, the UK and other parts of Europe. The Mountmellick-based business has traditionally sourced much of its steel outside the EU but is now restricted by rates jumping from 25 per cent to 50 per cent on non-EU material.
Founder and chief executive Tony Woods says that this will lead to pricing and capacity issues in the coming months. Like many other businesses, he says, this pressure is coming on top of the huge increases in energy associated with the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.
So how can businesses best prepare for this increasingly volatile environment?
“One of the most practical steps any exporter can take is to strengthen due diligence across their supply chain and customer base,” says Laura Fannin, partner, commercial, at Eversheds Sutherland.
“Having detailed knowledge of your counterparties is essential. This includes analysing where they are based, what regulatory regimes they fall under, and whether they are exposed to sanctions or restricted-party lists. Robust due diligence not only helps businesses identify legal and compliance risks before they crystallise, but also enables them to react more quickly to changing trade restrictions and avoiding costly disruption to their operations.
“Importantly, once a particular risk has been identified, businesses are often in a position to mitigate it contractually, whether through tailored compliance obligations, enhanced termination rights, alternative sourcing arrangements, or other risk-allocation mechanisms.”
Another area to be considered is commercial contracts. A well-drafted force majeure or material adverse event provision can protect an exporter where tariff increases, trade embargoes, or regulatory changes make performance commercially impracticable or impossible. Where a supplier can no longer provide goods or services due to trade restraints or supply shortages, companies need flexibility in their contracts to shift suppliers quickly, she advises.
Mary Kiely, partner, corporate at Eversheds Sutherland, meanwhile, says that a more fractured global trade environment is forcing companies to rethink where and how they grow. As a result, cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) deals have fallen globally.
“Unsurprisingly, buyers are more focused on domestic resilience amid trade/tariff uncertainty,” she says.
“In the first half of this year, we continued to see resilience in the domestic M&A market in Ireland. Companies with strong balance sheets and resilient cash flows continue to command strong buyer interest, demonstrating there is clear appetite for the right assets, especially those insulated from regulatory and trade risks.
“For any Irish company which is considering a sale process in the near future, where possible, they should focus on relocating resources geographically to mitigate geopolitical and trade uncertainties and address energy and supply chain security.”
While global trade and geopolitical uncertainty have made Irish M&A more cautious and valuation sensitive, the outlook remains positive for the remainder of 2026, particularly for mid-market Irish M&A activity, she adds.
Despite the challenges, Irish exporters have demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past decade, having successfully navigated Brexit, Covid-19, supply chain disruption and energy market volatility. These experiences have strengthened their ability to respond quickly to external shocks and build more resilient business models, says Aidan McKenna, regional director, Americas for Enterprise Ireland.
“Companies are increasingly adopting a dual-track strategy: protecting and growing market share in established markets such as the United States, while actively diversifying into new markets across Europe, the Gulf and Asia. This aligns closely with the Government’s action plan on market diversification and reflects a growing focus on reducing concentration risk while maintaining momentum in key export markets.
“Importantly, businesses are continuing to invest through uncertainty rather than retreating from it.”
Despite the uncertainty, Enterprise Ireland supported almost 100 client companies to establish new presences in the US during 2024 and 2025, reflecting the continued strategic importance of the market, he adds.
