For a perfect example of the notion that anything can happen in a tactical middle-distance final just look at the women’s 1,500 metres at the World Indoor Championships in Glasgow last weekend.
This is an event that could have big Irish interest come the Paris Olympic showdown this summer, all going to plan for Ciara Mageean and perhaps Sarah Healy, and Glasgow provided ample evidence that medals in races such as this don’t always go to those who have run the fastest times in advance.
The top indoor 1,500m list this year had six Ethiopian women well under four minutes, which has become the standard required now just to qualify to a world final, with Freweyni Hailu, world road mile champion Diribe Welteji, and Birke Haylom leading their charge in Glasgow.
Hailu darted into an early lead, closely followed by Welteji and Haylom, soon making it an Ethiopian one-two-three, about six metres ahead of the rest.
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Slowly and then suddenly that all changed. The fast start of 62 seconds at 400m was short-lived, the next two laps covered in 68 seconds, bringing the field back together. An intriguing battle was imminent and a whole new dimension was added to the race.
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The outcome was not so certain with the lack of a constant pace, and athletes had to think a bit more. With that Nikki Hiltz and US team-mate Emily Mackay moved into contention, and while two of the Ethiopians dropped back, Hailu kicked again to win in 4:01.46, Hiltz winning silver in 4:02.32, and Mackay holding on for bronze in 4:02.69.
Glasgow delivered a lot of tactical races like this, and plenty of other surprise medal winners. Even though the depth in numbers was not quite what we have seen outdoors or what we are likely to see in the Olympics.
There are athletes like Femke Bol, who set yet another world record in the 400m, and delivers on every stage, any time of the year
It also gave a good indication of where athletes are at in this Olympic year, at least for those who chose to turn up. It also created some wonder for what will come for those still in winter training hibernation, not quite ready to line up in a World Championship race just yet.
We were also given a glimpse of where Irish athletes stand and what work lies ahead over the next 140 days or so before Paris. That may not seem like a lot of time but it’s still well over four months away, just shy of 20 weeks.
Whichever way you look at it there’s time for a lot to change as athletes remain focused on the most important event this year.
The tactical distance races were a complete contrast to the paced events more common in the Diamond League. Consider as well how New Zealand’s Geordie Beamish shocked everyone including himself to move from fifth to first in the final 20 metres of the men’s 1,500m final.
For lot of current athletes, there is so much focus on training to be the fastest you can be, at a constant predictable pace. That creates an obvious lack of race practice when it comes down to tactical race.
Some athletes get lucky, but when you look at it many who capitalise on such a race will have had lots of similar race practise in their lifetime.
There are more indoor tracks in the United States than any other country in the world, so it seems fitting that the US claimed four medals across the men’s and women’s 1,500m last weekend, as well as gold in the women’s 3,000m, gold in the men’s 800m and silver in the men’s 3,000m
Almost all these athletes have a lot of indoor racing experience and most with a background in the cut-throat National Collegiate Athletic Association qualification and tactical racing skills required at those championships.
For the Irish athletes who remained at home for one reason or another, there will be some wondering of what this means for outdoor racing, or how these races boil down to such tactical affairs.
Then there are athletes like Femke Bol, who set yet another world record in the 400m, and delivers on every stage, any time of the year.
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The Irish team like most events did not have great depth, but there was quality highlighted by Sarah Lavin in the 60m hurdles, fifth place her best position ever at this level of competition.
The relay team always attracts a level of excitement, once again showing that they belong in finals at the world stage, but also once more coming up short when one of our greatest athletes chose not to compete, and the presence of Rhasidat Adeleke would have almost certainly guaranteed a medal.
So once again we are left wondering what might have been with that relay team, and most likely will be in a similar position at the European and Olympics later this summer, when an extra three or four seconds could be the difference between a European medal and a place in the Olympic final.