There are losses, and then there are those defeats that show us exactly who a team are. The Steelers’ 26-24 win over the Ravens on Sunday night was the latter. It wasn’t just a loss; it was a referendum. The game was vintage, grubby, beautiful AFC North football. A rivalry game with a playoff place on the line. Big plays. Dumb decisions. Cris Collinsworth making unintelligible noises on commentary. In the final three minutes, four plays swung the win probability by more than 40 percentage points.
The Steelers, missing DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington, scored on four of their five second-half drives, three of them touchdowns, with Aaron Rodgers finding Calvin Austin for a 26-yard score with 55 seconds left. Baltimore, by contrast, couldn’t get out of their own way until Lamar Jackson strapped on his cape, completing seven of his final nine passes, throwing two touchdowns and converting a ridiculously clutch fourth-down strike to Isaiah Likely with 21 seconds left and the season on the line.
It should have been the defining moment of Baltimore’s year. Instead, they botched it. With 12 seconds remaining and a timeout in hand, the Ravens took a knee. They had plenty of time to churn out an extra five or 10 yards, to turn the 44-yard field goal attempt into a chip shot and kill the clock. But John Harbaugh chose safety. Rookie kicker Tyler Loop missed the kick wide right. The Steelers celebrated a division title and the AFC’s No 4 seed. Baltimore went home.
It was classic Harbaugh. He has spent years skirting the edge of something great without ever quite stepping into it. The Ravens have been waiting to make The Leap for four seasons. They have lost in the wild card round, the divisional round and the conference championship. Now, in a wide-open AFC, they haven’t even made the dance. Their record with Jackson in the playoffs stands at 3-5. They haven’t cashed in on his prime, and the failures are starting to blur together.
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For years, Harbaugh’s strategic vision – which is vital in win-or-go-home games – has dimmed. The best coaches store up sneak attacks for specific opponents, pick on weak spots until they gush blood and go to creative lengths to hide the deficiencies on their own rosters. Being late finding the right countermove can cost you a game, a playoff berth or a championship. The margin for error is that small, and Harbaugh doesn’t seem to have the goods. And in the biggest moments, his teams play tight.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that Harbaugh’s future is “up in the air.” That’s fair. He has overseen 18 seasons of mostly sustained success in Baltimore and won a Super Bowl in the 2012 campaign. But that was a long time ago. And the disappointments since then far outstrip the highs.
This season was particularly cruel. An early injury crisis crushed the team on both sides of the ball. Jackson spent the season playing through various injuries. Nnamdi Madubuike, the linchpin of the team’s pass-rush, missed the bulk of the year with a neck injury. Harbaugh barely got to coach the version of the team he envisioned. But it’s also the second wasted year with the Jackson-Henry backfield combination, with poor plans along the offensive line and on defence.
The Ravens also looked unprepared on defence.. Harbaugh promised changes in the middle of the season and the team traded edge-rusher Odafe Oweh to the Chargers for safety Alohi Gilman. The defence, able to push Kyle Hamilton closer to the line of scrimmage, got back on track. Getting healthier certainly helped, too. From Week 9 onwards, Baltimore’s defence ranked seventh in success rate and ninth in defensive EPA per play. But it was too late. And in crunch time, the Ravens defence fell apart again, giving up a late touchdown drive to a Steelers team with no timeouts and a dysfunctional group of wide receivers in 60 seconds.
Harbaugh deserves credit for breathing new life into his tenure. It’s easy to say Jackson has carried his coach, but it was Harbaugh who believed in the quarterback before the rest of the league woke up to his talent. The partnership peaked for two years, with Jackson falling a single vote short of back-to-back MVPs last season. Anyone suggesting Harbaugh is a dolt must reckon with his 180 wins, his pre-Jackson Super Bowl ring and Jackson’s 2023 and 2024 seasons.
But partnerships, like teams, can grow stale. Next season will be year nine for Harbaugh and Jackson, and they look farther away now than they did when they last missed the postseason, in 2021. Jackson has just two years left on his contract – and there are rumours of tension between the head coach and quarterback. A jolt of something – anything – new is what the Ravens need.
If Harbaugh is let go, the hottest name will be Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who spent his early coaching career in Baltimore. If the Ravens step outside the familiar, they could pair up Jackson with an offensive mind with fresh ideas, whether that’s Mike McDaniel, Klint Kubiak or Kliff Kingsbury.
Harbaugh has been the model of consistency – before and after his Super Bowl win. But when you’re working with a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback, consistency is not enough. Failing to reach the Super Bowl, let alone win one, becomes a fireable offence. The Ravens are talented. They are close. But close has become the problem. When your season ends with a knee and a missed kick, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the moment finally passed Harbaugh by.
MVP of the week
Nick Emmanwori, Seattle Seahawks. It felt fitting that Seattle clinched the NFC’s No 1 seed in the most Seattle way possible: playing suffocating defence. The 49ers were in scorching form coming into the winner-takes-the-top-spot contest – they had put up at least 37 points in three straight games. None of that mattered on Saturday. Seattle’s defence restricted the 49ers to a solitary field goal in a 13-3 victory, holding Kyle Shanahan’s offence to its third-worst success rate of the season.
Emmanwori proved to be the difference-maker again. Seattle are loaded with stars across their defence, but Emmanwori ties the three levels together. He posted the highest pressure rate (40 per cent) of any Seattle pass-rusher, led the team in run stops (three) and gave up just 28 yards on seven targets in coverage. Without Emmanwori, the Seahawks’ defence would be great. With him, it is special. Because of his size, speed, versatility and intelligence, the Seahawks can get to defensive looks that few others in the league can replicate. It’s hard to think of another rookie who has stepped into the league and shouldered Emmanwori’s workload on a league-leading defence.
The reward is significant. Barring a Super Bowl return to Levi’s Stadium in February, the Seahawks won’t be packing a suitcase for the rest of the season. And they will enter the postseason as the NFC’s most complete team. Their defence is the best in football, they top the charts on special teams and their run game has finally come alive. If Sam Darnold can stay within himself – a fairly substantial “if”, even now – Seattle should make it back to San Francisco.
Video of the week
He did it! Myles Garrett wrapped up his brilliant campaign by breaking the league’s single-season sack record. His 23rd sack of the year, against Cincinnati in the fourth quarter, pushed him past Michael Strahan and TJ Watt for the top spot. And he did so in a way only he can: Garrett crossed the line of scrimmage 0.23 seconds after the snap, the fastest get-off on any sack this season, according to Next Gen Stats.
It was a strange game overall for Garrett. He abandoned other responsibilities and focused almost exclusively (and understandably) on the record. But Cincy were equally focused on stopping him from chasing history. He faced a double team or chip block on 42% of his pass-rushes, the highest rate in a game this season, with Joe Burrow also shaving almost half a second off his average time to throw. Eventually, though, Garrett got home.
There will be some whining about extra games, circumstances, or, if you’re Zac Taylor, the post-sack celebrations. None of it sticks. Garrett picked up the record in 432 pass-rushing snaps, 100 fewer than Strahan and almost 200 fewer than Watt during their record-breaking years. He will finish the season with another Defensive Player of the Year award and a cool note on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Stat of the week
Zero. The Jets have managed the unthinkable: they completed a 17-game season without intercepting a pass. Yes, you read that right. Zero. They’re the first team in NFL history to go a full season without an interception.
It is hard to overstate how impossible that should be. Jalyx Hunt, the Eagles edge-rusher, has three alone this season. Eventually, a tipped ball or a dumb quarterback decision goes your way. Not for these stanktastic Jets. They finished the season 3-14 after being pounded by the backup Bills 35-8.
It’s the kind of historical anomaly that should get any coach fired. Making a coach one-and-done is brutal. But Aaron Glenn has done nothing in his single season in charge to prove he has the makings of even a competent head coach. His game management has been poor, the team’s offence devoid of ideas and the defence, Glenn’s calling card, has been uncompetitive. Over the last five weeks of the season, the Jets’ average point differential was minus-26.8. There’s losing, and then there’s quitting. The Jets’ players look like they chose the latter over the final months of the season. When that happens, the coach should be toast. Although even without Glenn the team would still be stuck with bumbling owner Woody Johnson, who has overseen a Jets playoff drought that stretches back to the 2010 season.
