The Ciotóg Side: Beginner's luck, perhaps. The champions took the Munster final pretty much as anticipated in this quarter - three-point win, after a tense struggle. It was a fascinating contest, despite longueurs as regards the hurling's standard.

Cork emerged as more clay-footed than commonly allowed. Tipperary as somewhat more formidable, an improvement for which Babs Keating deserves much credit. The Premier County is the most impatient one. Match by match, though, their graph is on the up. The main glitch would be John Devane and Benny Dunne as first subs for the forwards.

As broached here, Leeside's full back line coughed up a share of goal chances. At fault, typically, was poor touch by Diarmuid O'Sullivan. He did trundle around as if expecting applause for quelling a cannonball against his loincloth, while fresh-airing a pull at a rather smaller orb.

The Rebel half-forwards contributing zilch on the scoreboard should likewise trouble eyebrows. The no show is becoming a habit. However you gloss it, such a trait will not easily deliver a 31st senior title, however fine the assets back the field.

This dearth notably changes the established dynamic, leaving goals a necessity rather than an adornment. Could tell, any such alteration. Not that there were no attacking merits. Joe Deane's intentional dab sideways for Brian Corcoran's goal (note the angle of his hurl) was sublime.

If Brendan Cummins's cack-handed grip let him down for Ben O'Connor's goal, it was a tremendous strike.

Can a county other than Cork leave September renamed "Themselves"? Better bet than before. Though very good and immune to panic, Blood and Bandage are far from invincible. Next day of asking, they will likely lift their game. But they could be vulnerable in a semi-final.

The season's conundrum will be whether a side with more class than the Premier's can stay with the Rebels long enough to benefit from said class. Attrition is a quiet, patient, eminently civil divil. He may doff his cap.

Some bookmakers were offering Tipperary at 4 to 1 last Sunday. Wexford are even longer odds (6 to 1) for the Leinster Final. Which or whether, this observer is not at all convinced about Kilkenny's status. As yet, Black and Amber have insufficient solidity to the team's vertebrae.

As of now, they are lodged in a curious position. Retention of their league title should have indicated that leading problems are being overcome.

Not really, though. Questions hover, busy as horseflies. The core demand is straightforward. Where the final outing of the previous championship involved concession of 5-18, the defence requires serious overhaul.

More than anything, Kilkenny require two corner backs who can play from the front. Plus, an authoritative centre back. Injury, through Michael Kavanagh's absence, has sharpened the former topic.

It is a year too early for Noreside's coming man in the position, Inistioge's Kieran Joyce. As with Séamus Hickey in Limerick, the truly bold move would have been to launch him. Kavanagh and JJ Delaney were introduced at the same age. Potentially, Joyce is just as good.

Now, the likely move is a shift backwards for John Dalton or Jackie Tyrell. Scarce little evidence suggests that Donnacha Cody has the legs for this level.

Essentially, the whole defence is unproven in the positions its members will take up. While John Tennyson is a fine hurler, there are doubts about his ability to manage consistently the traffic-halting aspects of playing at number six.

No such caveats attend Declan Ruth's role. Eddie Keher held this week in the local press that the Model County has "the best set of backs in the country outside Cork". Fair point. Even new wing back Richie Kehoe looks promising.

Wexford have been adding some heft up front in the form of Stephen Doyle and PJ Nolan. Yet, the Slaneysiders still seem to lack a natural full forward, a want that may only be solved by relocating Darragh Ryan. One for the quarter-final, possibly.

Logic pushes in a certain direction. All things being equal, the champions should outscore the challengers in points. For Wexford to triumph, 2004's contour looks relevant. The Yellabellies should have to score a goal more than the Marble men.

How equal will things be? Hard to say. With up to three Kilkenny forwards possibly unfit, half of their attack might be unproven in championship heat. For their part, Wexford have doubts about the ying and the yang that is Des Mythen and Paul Codd. Midfield, where Darren Stamp will not stand on ceremony, has still to see an adequate partner for Derek Lyng (whose own form has been scratchy).

Do not rule out an upset.

Do not rule out a draw.

That said, there is no truly compelling reason to forecast an upset. Kilkenny, especially if Henry Shefflin is patient, have a touch more firepower. Even if his defence is a work in progress, James McGarry has been playing well and could end up laoch na h-imeartha.

Believing that Michael Rice will line out and contribute intelligent scoring deliveries, this space will stick with a version of consensus. Memories of blight in 2004 and fright in 2005 should deter complacency.

Something like 1-18 to 1-15.

PM O'Sullivan is an academic and a hurling writer, whose column The Stubborn Nore appears on www.kilkennycats.com