Every Olympic athlete faces their own different dilemma. To go out hard or hold something back. To rest up some more or say “enough rest already”. To try not one but two events and hope that doesn’t backfire.
We already know that several athletes are eyeing up that Olympic double inside the Stade de France when the track and field events start next Friday. Don’t bet against Noah Lyles from the US winning the 100m and 200m gold medal, and definitely not against Jakob Ingebrigtsen from Norway winning the 1,500m and 5,000m gold. He’s my bet anyway.
Lyles will also be back for the 4x100m relay, suitably timed for after his individual gold medal aspirations are over and done with. Dutch runner Sifan Hassan has entered four events, the 1,500m, 5,000m, 10,000m and the marathon, and she’s fearless and mad enough to try to win a medal in all four.
Then there is the particularly difficult Olympic double dilemma facing Rhasidat Adeleke. The 21-year-old is still a few years off the peak of her powers. What we don’t yet know is whether she will run the 4x400m mixed relay in Paris. She did so when helping Ireland win gold at the European Athletics Championships in Rome last month, before turning her focus to the individual 400m where she also won the silver medal.
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What is certain is that the individual event is her absolute priority in Paris. Adeleke’s Irish record of 49.07 seconds from Rome is the third fastest time in the world this year among the 400m entries.
But at the last Diamond League meeting in London before Paris, 23-year-old Nickisha Pryce from Jamaica won in a new national record of 48.57 seconds, the fastest time in the world this year, ahead of Poland’s European champion Natalia Kaczmarek, who improved her national record to 48.90 seconds.
And two other women – Marileidy Paulino from the Dominican Republic and Salwa Eid Naser from Bahrain – are also significantly faster.
So it’s becoming increasingly clear that a sub-49 second clocking will likely be required to win a medal in Paris. Certainly not beyond the ability of Adeleke, although she still needs to make that jump, rather than hope the women ahead of her might somehow fall back.
Here’s that dilemma teased out in exact detail. Next Friday, the heats of the mixed 4x400m relay will take place on the opening day of the athletics (7.10pm), with the final then set for the Saturday night (8.55pm).
The three rounds of the women’s 400m are then set for the following Monday (heats, 12.50pm), the Wednesday (semi-finals, 8.45pm) and then the final on the Friday (8.0pm).
It’s most unlikely Adeleke will even consider running the mixed relay heats, and my bet is she’s already decided against it. But if the Irish quartet can make the final without her, that suddenly presents an entirely different scenario. Her chances of making the medal podium are arguably greater than in the individual 400m. But would that also take from her individual chances?
The Irish mixed relay team qualified for Paris at the World Athletics Relays in the Bahamas in May, with Adeleke running the second leg with a split time of 48.45 seconds, the fastest ever recorded in the event. In the end they won bronze behind reigning world champions the USA and the much-revered Netherlands, their star Femke Bol just holding off Sharlene Mawdsley for the silver medal on the anchor, by just .08 of a second, as the Irish clocked 3:11.53.
When winning the gold medal in Rome, the Irish quartet of Chris O’Donnell, Adeleke, Thomas Barr and Mawdsley improved their national record to 3:09.92. The gold medal in this event in the Tokyo Olympics was won by Poland in 3:09.87. You do the maths.
Rome, however, was a straight final, Adeleke also getting a bye from running the 400m heats there too.
The USA will start as favourites again in Paris, but with Bol prioritising the individual 400m hurdles, the Dutch are evidently even more beatable. Kaczmarek, we can assume, won’t be going anywhere near the mixed relay either.
Adeleke is also part of the women’s 4x400m relay in Paris, only any decision to run that has been taken out of her hands. The heats of the women’s 4x400m are on the following Friday morning, August 9th, with the individual final that evening, which means if Adeleke does make the individual final, there’s no way she’ll be running the heats of the relay as well. Making the final without her there is a much taller order.
Adeleke’s coach in Texas, Edrick Floréal – Coach Flo – has been consistent in saying that whatever decision is made regarding her running the mixed relay will be in her own best interests, as it should, and that Adeleke will have “some say” in the matter. Part of that interest may be to experience the Olympic arena before her individual event, given Adeleke, remember, was controversially not selected to run the mixed relay in Tokyo.
Adeleke also admitted her legs felt “a bit heavy” during her 400m semi-final in Rome, the day after that mixed relay, and she’d also received a bye from the opening heats there. Every muscle sinew is also in danger of being strained when reaching out for an Olympic medal, and Adeleke may well prefer to defer that risk until the individual 400m.
Two of her relay team-mates from Rome, Mawdsley and Barr, acutely surmised her dilemma when saying whatever decision she reached has to be respected.
“Rhasidat has to make the decision that’s best for her,” said Mawdsley, “and I would have no hard feelings at all.”
Barr added: “For her to be in the position that she is, challenging for a medal in the 400m, I would never hold that against her. She has bigger fish to fry in some respects. We’ll wait to see what way it pans out.”
Two relay positions can be switched between the heat and final. Athletics Ireland will have to submit their mixed relay team next Thursday, 24 hours before the heats, and may well include Adeleke anyway to afford her the chance to wait as long as possible before facing up to the ultimate Olympic dilemma.
To race for a relay medal or let that chance slip by in the hope of winning an individual one? It’s not a safe bet by any means, but my money would be on the latter.
