Thank God for forgiveness. There have been lots of general assumptions and bold predictions made in this column over the years, going back to 2007. Many of them were not entirely accurate. In some cases, they were spectacularly wrong.
So, apologies. If only we knew then what we know now.
As with any sport, there is no exercise more futile than trying to predict, with any great certainty, how an event may transpire. The current track and field season is no exception. Considering how long the season goes on, it’s an even trickier process.
The climax – the World Championships in Tokyo – is still three months away, which is the latest they’ve ever started except for Doha in 2019, when the brutal desert heat pushed things out to late September. For any athlete hoping to make the podium in Japan, now is not necessarily the time to be beating your opponents out of sight. Unless, perhaps, your name is Karsten Warholm.
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Rhasidat Adeleke finishes fourth in Diamond League 400m race in Oslo
Rhasidat Adeleke ready to turn up the heat on her summer in a double bill of Diamond League races
At the Bislett Games in Oslo on Thursday evening, the sixth stop in the Diamond League, the Norwegian broke his own world record in the 300m hurdles, running 32.67 seconds to delight his home crowd. He also beat US rival Rai Benjamin, who took his Olympic 400m title in Paris last summer. Warholm celebrated as if he needed to prove something to himself more than anyone else.
She will also have turned 23 by the time Tokyo comes around and is no longer the new kid on the block
Every athlete is different in that way. Earlier in the evening, Rhasidat Adeleke lined up for her first individual 400m of the season. By her own admission, she is nowhere near as race-sharp as she plans to be in September. It looked that way too. The Irish athlete started well in lane six and was still in contention coming into the home stretch, before tiring over the last 50m to finish fourth.
Adeleke’s time of 50.42 seconds was faster than her first individual 400m race this time last year, when she ran 50.54 in her semi-final at the European Championships in Rome. Then, 24 hours later, she ran 49.07 in the final, breaking her own Irish record and finishing a close second to Poland’s Natalia Bukowiecka, who won gold in 48.98.
Bukowiecka went on to win bronze at the Paris Olympics, one place ahead of Adeleke in fourth. In Oslo, Bukowiecka finished sixth in 50.67. The sense is she’s nowhere near race-sharp either.
What was perhaps telling about Oslo was the three athletes who finished ahead of Adeleke are now clearer and more present rivals. Victory went to US newcomer Isabella Whittaker in 49.58. The 23-year-old was making her first international appearance having run a US indoor record of 49.24 in March.
At age 21, Henriette Jaeger also thrilled the home crowd when running a Norwegian record of 49.62 to nail second. Jaeger was only passed by Whittaker in the last few strides and her confidence is clearly soaring since finishing eighth in the Olympic final last August, before winning silver at the European Indoors then bronze at the World Indoors.
Britain’s Amber Anning, who finished fifth in Paris, this time got ahead of Adeleke to finish third in 50.24. The 24-year-old also claimed the World Indoor gold back in March.
Speaking trackside after her race, Adeleke reiterated her different approach to this season. Her coach, Edrick Floréal at the University of Texas, is deliberately holding something back and perhaps trying to keep Adeleke mentally fresher too.
“Me and my coach have been working on something different,” she said. “The main goal is September, so each race I’m building up, to make it to where I need to be.”
Oslo was the first of a double bill of Scandinavian stops in the Diamond League. Adeleke will also race the 400m in Stockholm on Sunday evening. As will Whittaker, Jaeger and Anning, all naturally aiming to peak in Tokyo too.
Adeleke will also know she didn’t improve on her 49.07 clocked in Rome this time last year, which may have left her slightly off-peak at the Olympics. She will also have turned 23 by the time Tokyo comes around and is no longer the new kid on the block.
Also different about this season so far is that the two fastest 400m women in the world this year haven’t yet raced in the Diamond League. Olympic champion Marileidy Paulino from the Dominican Republic and silver medallist Salwa Eid Naser from Bahrain are focusing on the new Grand Slam Track instead. Naser has already run 48.67, just ahead of Paulino’s 49.12
Earlier on Thursday, news broke that the last of the four Grand Slam Track meetings, set for LA later this month, has been cancelled. This does leave a short gap in Paulino’s and Naser’s season, but there’s nothing bold in predicting both should make the podium in Tokyo.
For Mark English, at the opposite end of his running career and nine years older than Adeleke, Oslo provided evidence of a different sort of peak. When English was the subject of a column here back in 2012, aged 19, his 1:45.77 had been the fastest 800m Under-20 time in Europe that season. No one could have predicted he’d be running the fastest times of his life 13 years later.
In 2021, at age 28, English ran 1:44.71 to finally break the Irish 800m record of 1:44.82 which had belonged to David Matthews since 1995. Last year, at age 31, he improved the record again to 1:44.53, before coming out this season and running 1:44.34, then 1:43.92 to win in Hengelo, the Netherlands, last Monday.
English did have to settle for seventh place in Oslo, clocking 1:44.33 – still the second fastest time of his life. If he can hold that form to Tokyo, he’s a potential finalist.
The problem is peaking for any major championship, early or late in the season, has never been an exact science. For Adeleke, the timing of things up to this point may ultimately prove to be just about perfect. Who really knows?
