Leopardstown preview: Beef Or Salmon looks set to start the hottest favourite in the 20-year history of the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown tomorrow, yet there will probably still be some doubters out there looking for one of the seven others in the field to upset him.
It's a fact of life for the Michael Hourigan team that their seven-time Grade One-winning star still doesn't convince every steeplechase fan, and even a wide margin victory tomorrow won't change that much.
In many ways it's a no-win situation for Beef Or Salmon, in that victory will prove little to the form students and defeat would provoke widespread choruses of "I told you so".
Which is harsh on a horse whose 20-chase career has seen him flop in three attempts at the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but whose record around Leopardstown has been admirably consistent.
Six starts over fences at the Co Dublin course have yielded four Grade Ones, including the 2003 Hennessy, a runner-up to Rule Supreme last year and a third to Best Mate in the 2003 Ericsson.
But inconsistency, for whatever reason, is still perceived to be an issue for Paul Carberry's mount, although the jockey is typically focusing on the basics.
"I just hope we get a clear run and he jumps well, which is the main thing," he said yesterday. "A good horse will go on any ground. I know Beef Or Salmon likes it fairly soft, but Michael thinks he goes better than good."
But the last man you want chasing you in this race is Willie Mullins, who has trained six of the last seven winners of the €180,000 feature. Even having the hottest market leader since Carvills Hill (4 to 9) in 1992 in the race won't stop Mullins loyalists siding with the Grand National hero Hedgehunter.
"This race has been his target since the Grand National last year, and I hope we can get a little bit closer to Beef Or Salmon this time. Then we'll make a decision about the Gold Cup," said Mullins.
Hedgehunter has 17 lengths to make up on Beef Or Salmon from their running in the Lexus over Christmas, while the others face a colossal task on official ratings.
On everything we know it should be a relatively simple task for the favourite, and those hoping he can finally pick up that elusive Cheltenham victory next month will be hoping Beef Or Salmon will win in style.
In contrast, the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase looks ultra-competitive, with Hourigan running both Kerryhead Windfarm and Church Island, while Mullins will be doubly represented by Major Vernon and Our Ben.
Throw in Grade One winners Southern Vic and Kill Devil Hill, and the unexposed Sher Beau, and this is a genuine SunAlliance trial.
Southern Vic might just want softer ground than the forecast yielding, and, while Sher Beau could be one for the long-term, on this occasion the hardy Our Ben might just be the best option.
The day's other Grade One contest is the Deloitte Novices Hurdle, which threw up the subsequent Supreme winners Brave Inca in 2004 and Like-A-Butterfly in 2002.
If anything, this time round it looks more of a SunAlliance Hurdle trial, with Alexander Taipan bidding to redeem his reputation and Mossbank likely to relish the better ground.
Still, it is hard to get away from Mr Nosie's unbeaten record. He won on very soft here at Christmas, but was successful at Cork on a better surface. His point-to-point win last year is starting to look pretty good too, with Ballytrim looking so good during the week.
Mister Hight's 20-length defeat of Marhaba Million on New Year's Eve is a form standout in the Cashmans Juvenile Hurdle, and a similarly impressive display tomorrow would see the Mullins horse clear at the top of the Triumph Hurdle market. It might not be 20 lengths this time, but it will be disappointing if the former smart flat-operator doesn't win.
The former Gold Cup third Harbour Pilot made a winning point-to-point debut at Tinahely last month, and can book his place for the Foxhunters at Cheltenham in the Raymond Smith Memorial, while the gossip mill reports that Alexander Buffet is among the best of the Willie Mullins bumper team. That should be more than enough to win the last.
