SOCCER Euro 2004 Group C: Italy v Sweden, Denmark v Bulgaria: Even before Francesco Totti's three-match ban, this was a "do or die" affair for the Italians. In a tournament of this brevity, a team can allow itself only one false step and Italy have already used up their quota in a less-than-impressive 0-0 opening draw with Denmark in Guimares.Dragao, Porto, 7.45On TV: Network 2, UTV
Worse still for the Italians is that they come face to face with a Swedish side that, allowing for Bulgarian inadequacies, could hardly have been more impressive in their 5-0 win in Lisbon. Little wonder that, even before the Totti debacle, Inter striker Christian Vieri was warning that Sweden are a "high-quality" team, adding that Henrik Larsson is a "great striker".
In the absence of Totti, the most obvious move by coach Giovanni Trapattoni would see AC Milan's Andrea Pirlo move into the playmaking role behind Alessandro Del Piero and Vieri in attack. A straight Totti-Pirlo swap would have the virtue of leaving the overall tactical shape of the side relatively unchanged.
Even if the Italian tactical lineout remains largely the same, however, further personnel changes are on the cards. Lazio's Stefano Fiore should replace Mauro Camoranesi on the right of midfield whilst AC Milan's battling Gennaro Gattuso is set to take over from Cristiano Zanetti in central midfield.
In contrast, the Swedes are likely to make few changes in a team led by the "dream attack" of Larsson and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, ably supported by Freddy Ljungberg and Anders Svensson in midfield. Defender Teddy Lucic is set to miss the game with a rib injury, his place at right back being taken by midfielder Mikael Nilsson.
On paper, this is clearly an ideal situation for the confident Swedes, who find themselves facing a much-criticised, potentially-demoralised Italian team that simply has to win.
History has shown, however, that it is in precisely such "do or die" circumstances that Italy often excel. Furthermore Italy's central defensive partnership of Alessandro Nesta and Fabio Cannavaro is unlikely to allow Larsson and Ibrahimovic the same leeway as that afforded by Bulgaria. Italy to win.
PROBABLE LINE-UPS
ITALY (4-3-1-2): Buffon; Panucci, Nesta, Cannavaro, Zambrotta; Fiore, Gattuso, Perrotta; Pirlo; Del Piero, Vieri.
SWEDEN (4-1-3-2): Isaksson; Lucic, Mellberg, Jakobsson, Edman; Linderoth; Nilsson, Svensson, Ljungberg; Ibrahimovic, Larsson.
Referee: V M Melo Pereira (Portugal)
Denmark v Bulgaria
A decade after they reached the semi-finals of USA '94, bouncing back from a 3-0 defeat by Nigeria in an earlier round, the Bulgarians have been speaking of repeating the trick here where they now need at least four, and probably six points, from games against Denmark and Italy if they are to progress.
The scale of Monday's defeat by Sweden highlighted the frailty of the team's defence. Plamen Markov and several of his players have argued that the 5-0 scoreline was the result of an offside decision which led to the first Swedish goal, some bad luck and a couple of basic defensive errors.
Going forward they did look a little more impressive, but even if they do come away from this afternoon's game in Braga with something, it remains hard to see them getting the better of even the Totti-less Italians.
Only one change is expected to Monday's starting line-up with Velizar Dimitrov set to replace Zoran Jankovic in attack if he has recovered sufficiently from a calf strain.
The Danes, meanwhile, have both Thomas Gravesen and Jesper Gronkjaer available after suspension and a family bereavement respectively. Both are anxious to play but it's far from clear whether Morten Olsen will want to make changes in the wake of a fine performance against the Italians.
"As a football coach you always have to disappoint someone," said Olsen. "Now that Gronkjaer is here we can pick from all the shelves, but it is very difficult for me to name the team for this game."
PROBABLE LINE-UPS
DENMARK (4-3-3): Sorensen; Helveg, Laursen, Henriksen, Jensen; Gravesen, Poulsen or Jensen, Tomasson; Jorgensen, Sand, Rommedahl or Gronkjaer.
BULGARIA (4-5-1): Zdravkov; Ivanov, Kirilov, Pajin, Petkov; Peev, S Petrov, Hristov, M Petrov, Dimitrov; Berbatov.
Referee: Lucillo Batista (Portugal)
