Double incentive to give Kerry the edge

Analysis: Kerry are desperate to win tomorrow's final against Tyrone for a couple of reasons in particular

Analysis: Kerry are desperate to win tomorrow's final against Tyrone for a couple of reasons in particular. Páidí Ó Sé lost his job after the 2003 humiliation to the same opposition.

Not just the defeat but the manner of it shook Kerry football to its roots. They are also desperate to be the first team in 15 years to retain Sam Maguire. The fact that their neighbours Cork were the last team to win back-to-back titles only increases the motivation.

Tyrone, too, see this All-Ireland as a matter of life and death. Winning a second title in three years would confirm their status as one of the great teams of this decade and give them bragging rights across the fence at their great rivals Armagh, who they stopped on the same journey.

Any analysis of tomorrow's final has to be placed in the context of this background. It may not have been shouted from the rooftops at the press nights of both teams but make no mistake about it, Tyrone and Kerry are like men possessed in pursuit of victory tomorrow. It is very much a case of the immovable object against the irresistible force.

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Tyrone are the team that have faced the greater physical and mental tests up to this point. They stuttered through the early part of the Ulster championship, being taken to replays against Cavan and Armagh and finally self-destructing in the replay of the Ulster final when they were winning going into the final stages.

It is said that when a crisis occurs the reaction to it is more important than the event itself and Mickey Harte and his players deserve all the plaudits for the way they have overcome adversity this year.

The whole centre line of the team has been recast during the championship run. Of tomorrow's team, Joe McMahon didn't start the season at full back, Conor Gormley wasn't at centre half, Brian McGuigan was in Australia and Owen Mulligan wasn't making the starting 15 for the Ulster final. They have been beaten at midfield in most games and have still survived.

I haven't mentioned Peter Canavan, who was the saviour in the semi-final even though he has only played a bit-part all year because of fitness problems, illness and injury, if we are to believe all the stories. What a tale it would be if Tyrone can win tomorrow. It would even surpass their efforts in 2003.

Kerry have had a far less dramatic passage to the final with half the number of games. They were only seriously tested for a period against Limerick and Cork in Munster but very little thereafter. They were clinical when they had to be against Cork and Mayo but that was only for periods in both of those games. Cork's collapse in the semi-final was not good for Kerry either as no weaknesses appeared and it might be too late to solve them if they are exposed during the final.

The single most important reason Kerry are back defending their title has been the individual brilliance of Colm Cooper. The skills and all-round talent of the Kingdom corner forward have left every one of his markers in total disarray all year.

Ironically he is coming up against the best corner back in this year's championship, Ryan McMenamin, and their tussle will be worth the admittance price on its own. Normally in the modern game Cooper would be double marked so Tyrone's tactics here will be interesting.

The overall tactical battle will be intriguing because Jack O'Connor has recast his team's style very much on the Ulster model, with Paul Galvin, Liam Hassett, Eoin Brosnan and Declan O'Sullivan going back in defence and breaking forward in a very similar fashion to the way Brian Dooher, Brian McGuigan and Seán Cavanagh and company do for Tyrone.

With this system in place by both teams, traditional midfield play is less important. But if it comes down to winning clean possession in the middle third Kerry would seem to have the edge in this department with the strength and catching of Darragh Ó Sé, William Kirby and even Brosnan, who blotted out Anthony Lynch in the Cork game.

Like Cooper on McMenamin, the individual battle between Brosnan and Conor Gormley will have a big influence on the outcome.

The big scoring threats at the other end are, of course, Stephen O'Neill and Mulligan, but Mike McCarthy in particular will thrive on a man-marking job with Marc Ó Sé doing the roving job on whoever of the Tyrone full forwards drifts out the field.

Two other factors will influence the destination of Sam Maguire for the next 12 months. This will be Tyrone's 10th game in the championship, and the last one against Armagh was the most difficult physically and mentally. The celebrations in the aftermath of that momentous win confirmed that.

It will be interesting to see if there is any sign of tiredness in the Ulster team's performance.

Kerry's worries will be the opposite as they have rarely been at the intense pace of the Armagh/Tyrone game this year. The refereeing style tomorrow will also be important. There seems to be a tendency in this year's championship - certainly since the quarter-finals - to give the player in possession the benefit of the doubt if he is surrounded by a few defenders. He seems to get his free easier than in the past. This might suit Kerry rather than Tyrone.

I find tomorrow's outcome almost impossible to call but based on the fact that the Munster champions have had the easier passage and that they have the double incentive of the back-to-back titles and revenge for the 2003 semi-final they might just edge an enthralling contest.

The team that wins most possession in the middle third will be in a better position to provide the ammunition for the lethal inside forwards and it is my hunch that the defending champions are better equipped to do that.