The screeching, clanking sound you hear in the middle distance is the rubber meeting the road in Division Two of the football league. After four rounds of games, there is actually – and somewhat unexpectedly – a degree of clarity to the picture. Still a bear pit, yes. But one where the grizzlies are obvious to all.
Derry and Dublin look pretty nailed on to be the two promoted teams, bearing out what most people predicted before a ball was kicked. They meet this coming weekend so at least one of their 100 per cent records will take a dent. But either way, they have opened clear water to the others. Rory Gallagher’s side have been more impressive than Dessie Farrell’s but it’s hard to see either of them being overhauled with a four-point lead over third place and three games to go.
On a similar bent, Limerick are surely goosed at the bottom, being not just pointless but having the worst scoring difference across all four divisions. It’s one thing losing games, it’s another losing them by an average of just under 12 points an outing. The post-Billy Lee Limerick look to have none of the shape or cohesion of the past half-decade or so. It rarely pays to be making definitive judgments in February but already a lot of the good work of recent years seems to be unravelling.
In times past, having these virtual certainties so early on in the piece would make it easy to turn your attention away from Division Two and get on with your life. With three rounds to go, the only variable looks to be who will join Limerick in Division Three and though it looks set to be a close-run thing, a Division Two relegation place isn’t usually the sort of cliffhanger that puts bums on seats.
But the vagaries of the championship format have changed all that. For Cork, Louth, Meath, Kildare and Clare, the next three weekends are crucial in deciding what the rest of their season is going to look like. If they want to play in the Sam Maguire competition, they need to avoid relegation. But so knotted has the format of the All-Ireland become that even then, not all of them will be guaranteed a place in the top-tier competition.
Here’s the science bit. Linking the league to the championship is a long-overdue idea but it comes with complications and it can all get a bit labyrinthine if you stare at it for too long. In fact, the best way to think about it is to forget about league placings and start instead with the provincial championships. Far from fading into the background – as should surely be the case but that’s for another day – they actually have primacy when it comes to the make-up of the All-Ireland series.
[ Cork hit Limerick for six as they win by triple scores at Páirc Uí ChaoimhOpens in new window ]
The 16 teams who play for the Tier One All-Ireland will go into four seeding groups for the championship draw.
First seeds: The four provincial champions.
Second seeds: The four provincial runners-up.
Third seeds: The next four teams in the final National League rankings.
Fourth seeds: The next three teams in the final National League rankings plus Westmeath as 2022 Tailteann Cup champions.
There are, of course, some caveats to be made. If Westmeath make it to a Leinster final, they will go into the second pot of seeds rather than the fourth. The make-up of the 16 teams won’t change – it will still break down as the top 14 teams from Division One and Two plus Westmeath and the Connacht runners-up (guaranteed to be a Division Four team or New York). As it stands, winning Division Three won’t be enough to get the likes of Cavan, Fermanagh or Down – sitting at one, two and three in the table – into the Sam Maguire. Their only route would be to make an Ulster final.
But – and here’s where it starts to add to the sales of paracetamol among people trying to work it all out – that’s hardly a completely outlandish scenario. All three of those teams have a better recent record of making an Ulster final than Armagh. The Ulster championship has had four different winners in the past four seasons. Cavan were champions in 2020, Fermanagh and Down were runners-up as recently as 2017 and ‘18. Plus, whatever happens, Monaghan, Tyrone, Armagh, Donegal and Derry are already guaranteed their place in the Sam Maguire. The conditions for an outsider to catch a wave and ride it to the Ulster final are staring us all in the face.
[ Dominant Derry have promotion in sights after overpowering KildareOpens in new window ]
What does this all have to do with the sorrowful mysteries of the bottom of Division Two of the league? Everything. We already know that whoever finishes seventh gets relegated and plays in the Tailteann Cup. But if one of Cavan, Fermanagh or Down are in the Ulster final, their spot in the Sam Maguire will come at the expense of whoever finishes sixth in Division Two.
For Cork, Louth, Meath, Kildare and Clare, that adds a lorryload of spice to the coming weeks. Obviously, they’re all perfectly capable of making a provincial final in a given year and making their league placing redundant for the purposes of the championship. Cork and Clare, for example, are on the same side of the Munster draw and whichever of them prevails in the Munster quarter-final only has to beat Limerick to guarantee their spot.
But what of, say, Kildare? The hammering at Derry’s hands didn’t come out of the blue. They have looked completely out of sorts in this league and the natives are getting restless. They have to go away to Louth this week and if they don’t win, they’re going to be in a perilous state heading into the last two weekends. Maybe they beat the drop but even so, maybe the best they can do is finish sixth. They’re on Dublin’s side of the draw in Leinster, so a provincial final looks a stretch.
Kildare in the Tailteann Cup? It’s far from impossible.
