It is a tribute to Monaghan’s strong record against Dublin in recent league campaigns that there is still a bit of context to Saturday’s All-Ireland football semi-final.
Those matches stretch back through Dessie Farrell’s management – he has yet to beat Monaghan – to Jim Gavin’s final years: four fixtures – two defeats in 2018 and ‘19 followed by an unlikely draw in Farrell’s first league campaign and a defeat in Clones last year.
The unlikelihood of the draw was that Dublin trailed by six going into injury-time and yet pulled 1-3 out of the hat before the whistle – the equaliser kicked over by full back David Byrne, the rough equivalent of the apparitions that stalked Rome the night before Caesar’s assassination.
If that left Monaghan crestfallen they had their revenge two years later in Clones when Dublin again raided for an injury-time goal but a last-minute free kicked by Jack McCarron not alone won the match but relegated Dublin – and Kildare for good measure.
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That relegation contrasts with Monaghan who are about to enter a 10th year in Division One, its longest-standing tenant after Kerry.
Of the previous five league matches, all won by Dublin, four were decided by a single point.
This is a conurbation of 1.46 million against a rural county of 65,000.
Former Monaghan player Paul Finlay, whose distinguished career ran for 14 years until 2016, spoke at a championship promotion event, held by sponsors AIB.
He explained the importance of football in the county and how much effort goes into panning for talent – only last weekend the county contested the All-Ireland minor final.
“I suppose the one thing you can’t forget and overlook is how football-orientated the county is and how much good work has gone into Monaghan football over the last probably 20-something years from underage structures, development squads’ point of view.
“That is something that shouldn’t be underestimated maybe as to why Monaghan find themselves where they are and have been so consistent over a good decent spell, [it’s] is because of that brilliant work.
“A football-mad county that wants to be where we are. I don’t think that will change. There is no doubt we are up against it when it comes to playing Dublin, purely from a numbers perspective.”
The overall league record against Dublin is eight wins against the metropolitans’ 16; it maybe a two-to-one ratio but given the comparative histories and populations of the two counties, it’s entirely respectable. That disparity is more clearly evident in the championship record between the counties.
They have played five times in slightly over 100 years and Dublin have won all of them. The aggregate of those matches is 8-59 to 2-27, a neat 10 points per match, which is coincidentally the margin in the most recent meeting six years ago.
The counties had contrasting quarter-final victories. Monaghan armwrestled, point for point, to a draw with Armagh and then won a penalty shoot-out after extra time whereas Dublin raced over the horizon to defeat Mayo by 12 points.
Finlay believes there are limitations to his county’s settled style of defensively orientated play, designed to make scoring difficult.
“What’s got them here has been very structured and defensive and a measured approach to attack. Now, is that going to be enough to beat Dublin? I think that they need a very fast start. They need to get points on the board, get themselves in a position where they’re able to fall back into a defensive shape.
“Monaghan will be trying to contain that as best they can. Will they play a game of total containment until it fails? I would hope not. I would like to see Monaghan try and get a good start in the game.
“Going on what we’ve seen so far, I don’t see them changing much but until they have to – when the damn has been broken and Dublin have got in for some scores – and Monaghan have to try and play themselves back into the game.”
The contrast between league and championship is clear. Finlay himself played in the 17-point defeat in 2014 and is honest about the county’s record in these matches.
“Monaghan have failed at this level, playing the top three teams at this stage. Does that league win give them . . . of course, they have to take confidence that they were able to perform to a high level against a Dublin team that were full of All-Ireland medalists.
“They’ll take confidence but I don’t think they’ll be foolish enough to think, we’ve beaten them in Clones, now we can beat them in Croke Park.”
They haven’t had much experience of All-Ireland semi-finals recently and this is just the second in 35 years. The most recent was a one-point defeat by Tyrone.
Is there hope? Well, the odds on Monaghan this weekend are exactly – 8 to 1 – what accompanied Donegal into the 2014 semi-final against Dublin, the last time an Ulster side beat them.
