On provincial finals weekend nobody is being eliminated from the championship but it feels like there’s a huge amount at stake.
Two of the favourites for the All-Ireland are meeting in Thurles but, in a sense, that feels like something completely separate. For Limerick and Clare the Munster final is just another context for everything that has built up between them over the last three or four years.
The difference is that there’s a gun to Clare’s head now. They can’t keep on losing Munster finals to Limerick and hope to win the All-Ireland afterwards. They can’t keep on rattling Limerick, take them to the wire, and not get over the line. A time comes when you can’t take any good from losing. Clare are at that point.
If they win on Sunday I would say their chances of winning the All-Ireland are 50/50. If they lose I would put their chances at 30/70, at best, and maybe even 20/80. Losing also raises the prospect of another All-Ireland semi-final against Kilkenny, a match they have lost for the last two years.
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Most of the leaders on this Clare team are coming towards the final stage of their career. Their chances of winning the All-Ireland will not be better next year. No other team has gone down the stretch with Limerick as often as they have. Only a couple of teams have the power, physicality and pace to compete with them. Clare are one of them. All that does is give you a chance.
The issue for Clare now is in their minds. They had chances in the second half of the Munster final last year and didn’t take them. They had Limerick by the throat in Ennis at the beginning of the championship and basically fell apart in the final quarter. They took Limerick to extra-time in the Munster final two years ago and Limerick outlasted them. Clare cracked. As time goes on that baggage becomes harder to shift.
This year Clare recovered well after the Limerick game against teams that are not as good as the All-Ireland champions. They showed a lot of resilience against Cork and Waterford especially, but they’re facing a huge mental challenge now.
I would have experienced something like that against Kilkenny. We beat them in the 2012 Leinster final and didn’t beat them again until 2018. In one of those seasons they beat us twice. It turned into a big psychological hurdle for us, but a day comes when you have to say, “No more”.
It’s a huge game for Limerick in a different way. Winning six Munster finals in a row would be a new record, but their big focus is on five All-Irelands. A huge prize for winning the Munster final is having a clear month to prepare for an All-Ireland semi-final. For the last couple of seasons Limerick have used that break to maximum effect. Whatever issues, knocks and fatigue had built up during the Munster championship they had time to straighten things out.
The teams will be announced at midday on Friday, or maybe before. Limerick have really missed Darragh O’Donovan at centre field and it will be interesting to see if they name him on the bench. He’s a hugely underrated player in their system. Bringing him on for the last 20 minutes could be crucial.
Tony Kelly hasn’t started any of Clare’s games so far. After coming on against Limerick in Ennis he wasn’t even fit enough to be named as a sub for the following week against Cork. His name might not appear in the published 15 either today but Clare have named a few dummy teams already in the championship and it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts on Sunday.
I still believe he’s their best player. In full flow he is still one of the best players in the country. Some of the best performances of his career have come against Limerick. I don’t think they can win unless he starts. If he plays I believe they have a massive chance.
In the Leinster final there is a different dynamic at play. Dublin will take a lot of confidence from their last two performances, including their loss to Kilkenny in Parnell Park. In my view, that was a game they should have won.
They won’t fear Kilkenny and that puts them in a great position. But it is a huge game for them because this is their best chance of winning something. Dublin haven’t won a Leinster title for 11 years and this is just their second appearance in the final since then. I don’t see them as realistic contenders for the All-Ireland and in a sense this is their All-Ireland final. If they win tomorrow, Dublin’s season has been a massive success.
Nobody has been blown away by Kilkenny yet, but it would be foolish to read too much into that. Their performance in Pearse Stadium was impressive, given the players they were missing. But Galway’s limitations were exposed in the next couple of games. The Cats did enough against Wexford and Dublin without being spectacular.
We would have said that about Kilkenny a good bit in recent years and yet they’re going for their fifth Leinster title in a row. Their great team won seven-in-a-row under Brian Cody, but back then Leinster was not nearly as competitive as it is these days, and they were winning All-Irelands by playing four matches. It takes five matches just to reach a Leinster final now.
In that context five-in-a-row would be impressive. Are they vulnerable? On the face of it, I would say so. But how many times has that thought entered our heads over the years and Kilkenny still won? I expect they’ll find a way.
