All-Ireland Series permutations: All to play for as group stage comes to close

The final round of the All-Ireland SFC group stages means one thing: it’s permutations time.

Eight games are on this weekend’s agenda, with places in the All-Ireland quarter-finals and preliminary quarter-finals up for grabs.

Just to refresh our collective memory, there are four groups of four teams. The group winner from each group will go straight to the quarter-finals (to be played the weekend of June 28th/29th) while the second and third-placed teams in each group will go to the preliminary quarter-finals (to be played the weekend of June 21st/22nd).

For those preliminary quarter-finals, second-placed teams will face a third-place team from a different group, with the former having home advantage.

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Here’s how things stand in each group, and how the championship may look after this weekend’s action.

All #SamMaguireCup Tables after this weekend's Round 2 games. #GAA #SFC #TheSundayGame pic.twitter.com/w9AWeJjftS
— GAA League Tables (@GAALeagueTables) June 1, 2025

Group 1

This group will test the patience of even the most avid permutationists. All four teams – Donegal, Mayo, Tyrone and Cavan – have two points to their credit having each won one and lost one of their group fixtures. The counties currently sit in that order based on points difference.

Tyrone face Cavan on Sunday at the same time as Donegal meet Mayo. The winner in either or both games will be safe, the losers not so much. If there’s only one loser (ie the other game ends in a draw) then that losing county says goodbye.

In a case where neither game ends in a draw, the two winners will be level on four points and who takes the quarter-final place would be determined by their head-to-head result. In that same scenario, the two losers would be level on two points, and who takes third place (thereby qualifying for the preliminary quarter-finals) would also go down to the two counties’ head-to-head result.

If there’s one draw in the two games, the two drawn counties go to the preliminary quarter-finals, and from the other game the winner goes to the quarter-finals and the loser falls on their sword. If there are two draws (have mercy on us), it all comes down to points difference.

Group 2

Kerry and Meath are both sure of a place in at least the preliminary quarter-finals, but that coveted direct route to the last eight is on offer for the victor of their meeting at O’Connor Park on Saturday. If the game ends in a draw, Kerry top the group.

Roscommon have the upper hand against Cork as a win or a draw for the Rossies in Portlaoise would be enough to get them through to the next round. A win for the Rebels would see them leapfrog their opponents, sneaking through to the preliminary quarter-finals as the third-placed team.

Group 3

A pair safe and a pair in danger. Down and Monaghan are both sitting pretty on four points, while it’s duck eggs for Louth and Clare. Those also happen to be the pairings for this weekend’s games.

A win for either Down or Monaghan would put them top of the group and through to the quarter-finals, loser heads to the preliminary quarter-finals. If their game at the Athletic Grounds ends in a draw, it’ll come down to points difference, which would go Down’s way as they lead Monaghan by three points.

Meanwhile in Portlaoise, a loss for either Clare or Louth would bring the curtain down on their season, and should there be a draw, Louth’s favourable points difference (-7 to Clare’s -26) would send them through.

Group 4

The “Group of Death” hasn’t proved all that deadly for All-Ireland champions Armagh. With two wins from two, Kieran McGeeney’s men have ensured their title defence will live to see the knockout stages, and they’ve bypassed the preliminary quarter-finals for good measure.

Armagh’s four points has them two ahead of Dublin, and three ahead of both Saturday opponents Galway, and Derry. A win or a draw in Breffni Park would see the reigning champs top the group on six points. Although a loss would put them at risk of being caught on points by Dublin (should Dessie Farrell’s side beat Derry), their head-to-head result (Armagh beat Dublin in round two) means the Orchard County would come out on top.

The other three counties, meanwhile, are in a battle for survival. A win for Dublin against Derry would see them safely through to the preliminary quarter-finals, as would a draw, but a loss would leave them at the mercy of the Galway result. Should Dublin lose and Galway win, the Dubs are out and the Tribesmen progress.

If both of this weekend’s fixtures end in draws then Dublin would take second behind Armagh and Galway would pip Derry with their healthier points difference as the side drew when they met in round two.