Well over twice as many two-pointers scored into Canal End than Hill 16

It can be very tempting to draw parallels between last Sunday’s hurling final and this weekend’s football showpiece. Despite being just a week apart and falling under the GAA umbrella, these are two very different sports, and the tactical dynamics that influence the games will be totally different. However, one thing will remain the same – the venue.

Croke Park is sacred ground for the GAA and a great final played out on its manicured surface on Sunday. There’s just one problem with the stadium, and it’s starting to look more like a design flaw rather than a game-by-game coincidence. On Sunday, both teams struggled to shoot into the Hill 16 end of the ground with 0-15 tallied up there, while at the opposite Davin Stand (or Canal End), a blazing 4-30 was scored.

It could well be the case that the football final will also be influenced by this strange detail, although it’s likely to be a more subtle touch. The standing-only Hill end is the lowest part of the stadium, as well as the only section which is not covered by a roof owing to the train line running behind. This, as well as the large gap between this section and the Cusack Stand, creates a larger breeze for player shooting at the goals.

This has proved particularly problematic for two-point shooting, with only 17 two-pointers being scored into the Hill in this year’s Championship and Tailteann Cup games at Croke Park (13 in total). Down the other end of the field, there’s been no such trouble, with 43 two-pointers going over the Canal End goalposts – more than 2½ times as many.

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It’s part of a wider pattern, where scoring is increased into those goals. In these 13 games, the scoring average (counting green, orange and white flags) was 10 in the half they kicked towards the Hill. Playing into the Canal End, teams averaged just over 12 points per half.

It also appears easier to get a scoring streak going there too – the most scored in a half into the Hill was a total of 16, which has been bettered or matched five times at the other end. Counting each type of score fully again, there have been 314 points scored into the Canal End in Croke Park, compared to 260 at Hill 16.

The good news for Donegal is that they are the only team to have scored more two-pointers into the terrace (3) in Croke Park than into the seats (1). The peak of Kerry’s season so far occurred playing into the Davin, when they went on an unanswered streak of 14 points against reigning champions Armagh in the quarter-finals. That second half included three of their six Croke Park two-pointers, while they have shot two scores from outside the arc into Hill 16.